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Author Topic: Who's Next to 3,000 Hits?  (Read 7363 times)
Mild Sauce
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« on: July 10, 2011, 02:58:26 am »
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So now that Jeter has got his 3,000th hit, who's next?

First off, a huge congrats to Jeter, who will surely read this post. However, he's conducted himself with class throughout his career, and I'm happy to see him get to that milestone, and all with one team.

So, as for who's next, some candidates:

Ivan Rodriguez - 2842 (39 years old)
Alex Rodriguez - 2762 (35 years old)
Johnny Damon - 2662 (37 years old)
Adrian Beltre - 1985 (32 years old)
Albert Pujols - 1979 (31 years old)
Miguel Cabrera - 1497 (28 years old)
Jose Reyes - 1243 (28 years old)
David Wright - 1182 (28 years old)
Robinson Cano - 1174 (28 years old)
Starlin Castro - 255 (21 years old)
Jason Heyward - 195 (21 years old)

The Castro and Heyward ones were a bit of a joke, as they're way too young and a lot can happen in the next 10-15 years. However, the ones that I posted are the ones that do actually have a reasonable chance at getting to 3,000 hits, although we'll likely not see most of them get there. I think Rodriguez will get there, with Vizquel, I would say he'll get there, but he's 44 already, and he's not likely to get enough time out there to get it by the time he's 50, so I left him off the list. Damon's an outside chance. As long as he's productive he'll keep in there, but I don't know how much longer he'll play. Beltre has a while to go, but if he plays until he's close to 40, I can see it happening. Similar with Pujols. He does walk a lot, which I think will work against him, but at the same time I can see him getting there if he sticks around for long enough, which by going by what he wants for a contract, he will be able to do. Miguel Cabrera has a similar chance and similar circumstances to Pujols. Similar for Reyes, but with Reyes he's also going to have to be more healthy than he has been so far. With Wright, I think he's an outside chance. The same goes with Cano. Since I put them on there, the two young guys I think have an excellent chance. If neither of them implodes at any point and plays for long enough, they both can do it. Castro will probably develop more discipline at the plate, which will get him more walks, but at the same time he's someone who will likely get around 200 hits per season, assuming he remains healthy, for the next 12-13 years. Last season, in a partial season, he had 139 hits. If you take this season, and add another 12 seasons of 200 hits, that's 2,600, on top of that 139, making for 2,739 at the age of 33. Then again, like I said before, there are a lot of ifs involved. He's going to have to stay healthy, and at some point he's going to be asked to improve his defensive fundamentals. He's already got the making for an excellent defensive shortstop, he just makes a lot of silly errors (today's was actually very questionable, but that's the first one this year I can say that about). He's going to have to continue at the level he's playing, and he's also going to have to develop in other ways, especially at the plate. The same things go for Heyward. Last year he got 144 hits in a full season, this season hasn't been very good to him, but I can see him finish with around 120. He'll be barely 22 at that time with 264 hits. Once he develops I can see him getting around 150 hits per season (somewhat conservative estimate) for at least the next 10 years. That's 1,500 hits there along with the 264, and that's 1,764 hits at age 32. That gives him an outside shot at getting to 3,000 hits, but with both Heyward and Castro that's a ton of guessing there, so there's nothing that says anything sure for either of them, obviously.

Anyway, next I'm thinking will be Pudge. He's very close right now, and while he doesn't get a lot of chances right now, he's still going to be a guy that teams will want for another few years, if for nothing else, his veteran leadership. Getting 158 hits between now and the next couple of years shouldn't be too much of a problem for him. After that, I see Damon getting there. The guy's up there in years, but he still plays almost regularly. By the end of this season he should be about 250 away. Unless he pulls out a retirement, I can see him sticking around and getting a reasonable amount of time over the next few years, and getting past that 3,000 hit mark. With the rest of them, Beltre has a reasonable chance at getting to 3,000 if he continues to play like he does and plays into his late 30's. He doesn't walk much, which means that he's going to swing at more (duh). However, he's not a great hitter for average as a whole. The rest is just more of the same old song and dance, they gotta continue to hit like they have been for X amount of time.
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« Reply #1 on: July 10, 2011, 03:44:00 am »
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1. Pudge Rodriguez - He's going to not stop until he gets there.
2. Alex Rodriguez
3. Albert Pujols
4. Johnny Damon- I could totally see him retire before getting there. That's why he's not higher.

Everyone else has practically no shot in my eyes. Bar Heyward and Castro, of course.

I want someone who went to college to get to 3000 hits. That would be epic, in my eyes.

A couple you're missing who I think have real chances to get there are:

Ichiro Suzuki- 2345 hits in only 10.5 ML seasons (1278 hits accrued in Japan)
Michael Young- 1964 hits (I'm reaching a bit here, but he's an ultimate team guy and he graduated college)
Carl Crawford- 1544 hits (He's 29 years old and has plenty of time left to get there) 
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« Reply #2 on: July 10, 2011, 05:43:00 am »
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ARod will prob be next.
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BteamBomber
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« Reply #3 on: July 10, 2011, 07:02:42 am »
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me  Kiss
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« Reply #4 on: July 10, 2011, 07:13:36 am »
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Jose Bautista.
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« Reply #5 on: July 10, 2011, 08:15:49 am »
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Gay-Rod.
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Mild Sauce
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« Reply #6 on: July 10, 2011, 05:29:50 pm »
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1. Pudge Rodriguez - He's going to not stop until he gets there.
2. Alex Rodriguez
3. Albert Pujols
4. Johnny Damon- I could totally see him retire before getting there. That's why he's not higher.

Everyone else has practically no shot in my eyes. Bar Heyward and Castro, of course.

I want someone who went to college to get to 3000 hits. That would be epic, in my eyes.

A couple you're missing who I think have real chances to get there are:

Ichiro Suzuki- 2345 hits in only 10.5 ML seasons (1278 hits accrued in Japan)
Michael Young- 1964 hits (I'm reaching a bit here, but he's an ultimate team guy and he graduated college)
Carl Crawford- 1544 hits (He's 29 years old and has plenty of time left to get there) 

Crawford has a decent chance. Ichiro is 37, and I just don't know if I can see him getting there, but to be honest, there's no reason to not believe it, I mean, yeah, his numbers are slipping a bit, but I think he can average 170 hits for another 3 seasons after this, which will put him very close, if not there by the time he's 41. It's an outside chance, but I guess he does have one. I just don't see Young getting there though. I guess he does have an outside chance, but for some reason I just don't see it happening. I would love to see him get there though, I love him as a player.
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« Reply #7 on: October 10, 2015, 10:03:16 pm »
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It was A-Rod.
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