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Author Topic: Dont bother with Zero  (Read 13102 times)
Happiness1982
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« on: September 04, 2007, 09:16:35 am »
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Things are slow in here but dont worry Steve- Ed is here!

I was just thinking about Gil opting out to get big $. I love Gil but here's the issue (in my head!!?)- he isnt worth it. What happens when you try to build around an undersized, shoot-first point guard is not good. He's a tweener currently and thats a concern.

given his current skills, how many of you guys would be happy to either a) trade him or b) let him go

i'll go into more detail if I have to
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manu!
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« Reply #1 on: September 04, 2007, 09:44:02 am »
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I do like him a lot.. His writings.. etc.. But you have a point.. it's not a player to built around..

But he has a large ego, so he won't accept a lower salary..
A good option is trading him for some talented young players.. Future players.. But which team with talented young players would give up them for a individual.. To bad that he isn't a really good team player.. If he was, he would be my hero!
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steve
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« Reply #2 on: September 04, 2007, 12:01:44 pm »
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Another major factor is that he's been improving every year and he's still only 25.  I'm not sure if his ego is as big everyone seems to think it is and him being an eccentric goofball gets misinterpreted a lot of the times.  Also fully believe that if Butler and he were healthy in the playoffs last they would've beaten the Cavs (of course they probably would've been playing the Raptors or the Bulls because they wouldn't have finished the season on an 2-8 run).  How many other guards 25 or under are better than Arenas or have as high a ceiling as Arenas?  And Grunfeld thinks he's worth it, which is most important in this matter.
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Happiness1982
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« Reply #3 on: September 04, 2007, 12:45:15 pm »
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Okay, allow me to elucidate:

Even if he could play D, he's too small to guard most sgs so that limits you to having him play the opposing pg (which is big trouble if its a good pg) or letting him guard the 2 and getting lit up (again, if its a decent sg).

Now, im sure many would say 'well not many teams have very good sgs AND pgs', and thats often true, but the problem is that you then have to rely on a specific sort of player at the 2 guard spot on your team.

As an example, look at the current roster:

you have Zero running point, with Deshawn at the 2. Now that works in part because DS is a decent on the ball defender, so in many cases he can cover the more offense-geared guard on the other team.

This is where it gets tricky: Arenas is a shoot-first guy, something of a ball-hog. This causes problems because it creates a disparity between the pg and sg in terms of shots and assists- if arenas is taking all of Deshawns shots, you either have to have him ALSO making a bunch of assists a la steve nash, OR deshawn has to be compensating for that with a bunch of assists himself, otherwise theres an imbalance, a waste of half a player if you will.

Lets look at a more traditional line-up- that of the pistons. granted they're better all-around than DC but bear with me.
Billups at pg. Now he is a good shooter BUT he can also pass. and defend. now with rip at the two, you have a balance because if billups shoots a bit more, rip is a good enough passer to create for others a bit himself. looking at defense, billups is good enough that he can handle any pg, meaning it doesnt necessitate a top-level defender at sg (though rip is decent in that regard too).


 To conclude, as much as I love him, I thinki building around Gil is very hard UNLESS he does one of the following:

1) becomes a defender who can handle top pgs
2) grows 3 inches to handle above average 2 guards
3) becomes a 10+ assist per night guy


that is all.
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steve
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« Reply #4 on: September 04, 2007, 01:30:43 pm »
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The thing is though they do have two guards at the moment who compliment Arenas taking a ton of shots.  Both Stevenson and Daniels (who led the league in assist to turnover ratio) are fine with giving up shots to Arenas, not too mention they have a fairly decent passer in Butler playing on the wing.  So they are at this point building around a shoot first lead guard (althougth they could use a passing big man at this point).  As much as Arenas takes a number of shots, most of the shots are taken within the framework of the offense (the exception usually being those three pointers he likes to take with 22 seconds left in the shot clock).  And for as bad a defender as he is (it's more a lack focus than anything else), it's not where the Wizards get killed when teams put up a lot of points against them, in fact they rarely killed by guards.  And I will contest that if Arenas decides to put the proper effort in his defense that he's able to guard most off guards, he's listed at 6'3" but he's probably a little over 6'4".
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Happiness1982
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« Reply #5 on: September 04, 2007, 01:43:01 pm »
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Thas valid but im talking in terms of building a contender around him. I mean, all this is moot if they get him for less than 10mil per but of course that wont happen, meaning you only have a certain amount of $ to spend on compensating for the arising issues. I dont mind him taking loads of shots but if he's not dishing a lot then you need that to come from the sg too. Given that the sg in question also must be a top defender, how many shooting guards in the L are top defenders AND capable of assisting in the 5/6 per night region? i dont think its that many: Ginobili is probably close, Joe Johnson, Pierce if he's trying. Then look at how much you have to pay to get guys like that, it doesnt work. Thats why he's likely to be hard to build around. If you just get a filler like Deshawn then others must compensate and obviously that gets harder with bigger people (physically).
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IlovePPierce
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« Reply #6 on: September 04, 2007, 03:01:24 pm »
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Not to go off subject, but if they had a solid 15ppg 10rpg and 2bpg, big man, how much differant would it look?
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Happiness1982
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« Reply #7 on: September 04, 2007, 03:15:55 pm »
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Well thats interesting at least because then it raises the issue of how many assists Gil would be looking at when dealing with a capable big man underneath (lets say krstic, for example). However, it is, of course, all proportional, meaning that even if he averaged 12 there would still be a skill gap that needs filling, only perhaps to a smaller degree.
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« Reply #8 on: September 04, 2007, 09:09:12 pm »
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But then it's hard enough to effectively to build around a guard in general without a competent big man.  He might not be worth the money that the Wizards are probably going to pay him, but in reality how many players actually are worth that much?  Maybe a handful at best.  And then how many of them are actually going to win you a title?  Arenas is still one of the best players in the league right now and he keeps on improving every year so the Wizards are building around him the best they can and realistically, Arenas has the ability that if he does put it together he could possibly lead a contender, but if he leaves DC then it's back to the hell that they were where they weren't good enough to make the playoffs and weren't bad enough (or lucky enough) to get a high draft pick.  I'd much rather they be where they are now than where they were before Arenas came to DC, of course in a few years this might change, but right now I'm fairly content.
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« Reply #9 on: September 05, 2007, 01:21:41 pm »
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I agree with Steve here.  Unless you can go all out one way or the other, then you need to stick with a 40-45 win team over a 35-42 win team.  And at least this team is a lot of fun to watch!
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Happiness1982
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« Reply #10 on: September 05, 2007, 02:36:10 pm »
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Well I cant comment on how Gil effects their marketability as I honestly dont have any facts/info on that.

Bear in mind I am simply playing devils advocate here and it comes down to whether you want a ring or whether you want to be the Phoenix Suns. I dare say many would be happy to be the Suns.

Humour me, though. Lets say you want a championship. KNOWING that people who can shoot are ten a penny in the L, but decent passers/defenders arent, where do you want your money going?

Now granted you may think is the standard 'put all your money in a top C and maybe PG and fill the rest' rant, and it is in a way, but relating this to Arenas, his gaps (not enough passing, defense) can be filled WHILST spending the same money and scoring as many points.

Lets say for arguments sake they traded Gil to Memphis for Conley Jnr and some filler nonsense like Swift. Im being generous to make a point. Conley can pass and defend. Yes he's on a rookie contract but he wont cost Gil money even when he does re-sign (thats moot but worth thinking about) . You then use the residual (when the filler expires), along with maybe a pick or a rotation guy to get a shooter. Lets say a guy like Luther Head or Cat Mobley- decent shooters with fairly good D.

Immediately you have a fundamentally improved backcourt (and cheaper). Couple that with moves to get a decent big person instead of Jamison who is a waste of time (great guy and player but wont win squat for you), and you're good to go. Butler is a keeper imo. right amount of money (just).

Right, im tired. Will continue later
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steve
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« Reply #11 on: September 05, 2007, 04:12:25 pm »
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Quote from: "Happiness1982"
Well I cant comment on how Gil effects their marketability as I honestly dont have any facts/info on that.

Bear in mind I am simply playing devils advocate here and it comes down to whether you want a ring or whether you want to be the Phoenix Suns. I dare say many would be happy to be the Suns.

Humour me, though. Lets say you want a championship. KNOWING that people who can shoot are ten a penny in the L, but decent passers/defenders arent, where do you want your money going?

Now granted you may think is the standard 'put all your money in a top C and maybe PG and fill the rest' rant, and it is in a way, but relating this to Arenas, his gaps (not enough passing, defense) can be filled WHILST spending the same money and scoring as many points.

Lets say for arguments sake they traded Gil to Memphis for Conley Jnr and some filler nonsense like Swift. Im being generous to make a point. Conley can pass and defend. Yes he's on a rookie contract but he wont cost Gil money even when he does re-sign (thats moot but worth thinking about) . You then use the residual (when the filler expires), along with maybe a pick or a rotation guy to get a shooter. Lets say a guy like Luther Head or Cat Mobley- decent shooters with fairly good D.

Immediately you have a fundamentally improved backcourt (and cheaper). Couple that with moves to get a decent big person instead of Jamison who is a waste of time (great guy and player but wont win squat for you), and you're good to go. Butler is a keeper imo. right amount of money (just).

Right, im tired. Will continue later


But if you do make that trade, then the Wizards are probably out of the playoffs again for at least another year (or if they were in the playoffs it would be very similar to last year's playoff).  Conley would be too young to make an immediate impact and Jamison would be forced to carry much the offensive load smething that he's proven he can't do on a consistent basis.  Which leaves the team with Caron Butler, whose an All Star is not a lead guy and will always be a second banana.

Even if they were able to get a decent big man, they'd have to hope for someone like Al Jefferson not to resign with Minnesota.  Now if the stars were alligned and they were able to sign someone like Jefferson, then I would like the core of Conley, Butler, and Jefferson, if you have role players like Pesh, Stevenson, Young, and Blatche playing around them.

Actually, they don't have that many poor contracts with the exception of Haywood and Thomas, if they can actually find a way to ditch those and free up so more cap space (I'm sure someone out there has to be dumb enough to give us an expiring contract for one of those stiffs).  Jamison's contract is coming off the books next year, which will give them enough cap room to sign Arenas to a max deal and have some cash left over to sign an inside player (if one becomes available).
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steve
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« Reply #12 on: September 05, 2007, 04:24:59 pm »
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Basically the point I'm trying to make with Arenas (and it doesn't really fit in with my last post, because I got distracted looking at salaries and I'm a little lazy to go back and edit now), is that for a lead guard who has the potential to be a very good playmaker/scorer, the Wizards are surrounding him other big guards who play with a lead guard's mentality, Daniels and Steveson, to the point where Arenas is playing off the ball a lot (and even then he's averaging about six assists a game).  If we got some decent help inside or if Pesh and Blatche develop in the way that everyone hopes they will, then things would and will be different.  You can win with a guard like Arenas, you just have to be careful which players you put around him and you also have to play a certain offense with that encourages ball movement.
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Happiness1982
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« Reply #13 on: September 05, 2007, 04:30:19 pm »
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oh absolutely i couldnt agree more, but obviously i feel thats quite a difficult balance to achieve. i do agree that daniels is useful as a 2 with arenas but deshawn cant play that role imho. if deshawn could handle better and daniels was better on D then i'd like it more...


p.s you NEVER go back to previous pages, you are uber-lazy!  :wink:
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« Reply #14 on: September 05, 2007, 06:33:31 pm »
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That's been me lately at least, I'd like to think that I've done a better job in the past (or it could just be me not thinking back far enough).  I think what gives me paitience with Gilbert is that he's still only 25 and he's shown improvement every season he's been in DC (plus he's a really likable guy, which helps).  I see a lot of Pete Maravich in him (although not as naturally gifted as Maravich), where he can get his shot any time he wants and could be a world class playmaker, but he's more worried about getting his shot.  Of course if he doesn't show improvement over the next few seasons, then my paitience is going to wear a bit thin.
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