Why The Tinsley-Felton Trade Won't Happen
Authored by Andrew Perna - February 11, 2009 - 8:18 pm
On Tuesday night, ESPN reported that the Pacers and Bobcats were engaged in "active" talks regarding a trade involving Jamaal Tinsley and Raymond Felton.
A collective sign of relief was heard around Indianapolis, but any such celebration should be put off until Tinsley is officially out of blue-and-gold. I highly doubt he's headed to Charlotte, unless the perimeters of the "proposed" deal are altered significantly.
According to ESPN, the two teams were talking about a deal that would have sent Tinsley, Jeff Foster and a third player (Brandon Rush or Stephen Graham) to the Bobcats in exchange for Felton, Nazr Mohammed and Sean May.
Marquis Daniels' name has been whispered in rumors as well, but his contract includes a team option for next season, which I imagine the Pacers will definitely want to keep. This summer they'll decide whether to keep him long-term, or allow his salary to come off the books.
For what it's worth, the six-player deal would work under the NBA's Collective Bargaining Agreement in either case, whether Rush or Graham is involved.
However, that's probably as close as this deal will come to fruition because of more reasons that you can count on one hand.
First of all, head coach Jim O'Brien claimed on Tuesday night that he hadn't heard anything about a possible trade with Charlotte. "That's the first I've heard of that," O'Brien told NBA.com before Indiana's tight win over the Cavaliers.
Such a comment from a coach isn't a great indicator of whether or not a trade is imminent, but his comments were more indicative of something like "No comment" or "You guys know as much as I do."
With that said, Avery Johnson, then the coach of the Mavericks, told me in Boston last February that the team wasn't looking to make any moves. Just days later, Dallas sent Jason Kidd to New Jersey in a mega-deal.
Continuing with comments from the Pacers' organization regarding a trade of any kind, the ESPN report claimed that Indiana and Charlotte have been discussing the aforementioned trade "for weeks," but general manager David Morway told me at the beginning of the month that nothing serious was in the works.
"We aren't anxious to make a deal, but obviously we've gotta talk because we're not good enough and we certainly want to get better," Morway said before placing his confidence in the team's current roster.
"You've gotta give a team a chance to stabilize and play together," Morway added, which left me with a feeling that a major trade is unlikely prior to the Feb. 19 trade deadline.
Trading Tinsley isn't going to net the Pacers a season-changing player, and packaging guys like Foster and Rush along with the jettisoned point guard is highly unlikely.
As Mike Wells of the Indianapolis Star wrote on Wednesday morning, the Pacers recently extended Foster's contract through the 2010-11 season. Foster was drafted by Golden State, but has only played for one team in his ten-year career. Prior to this season, the center indicated that despite the team's recent struggles, he'd love to retire as a member of the organization.
Trading Foster would also leave Indiana with only two established players over thirty, Maceo Baston (32) and Rasho Nesterovic (32), and neither has played as huge a role as Foster.
It also wouldn't make sense for a "rebuilding, but contenting" team to deal a player like Rush, who can be had for less than $3 million per season through the 2011-12 campaign. He has disappointed thus far, but he's only a little over halfway into his rookie season and has at least another 100 or so games to prove he was worth the thirteenth overall pick in last June's NBA Draft.
As badly as Morway and team president Larry Bird want to get rid of Tinsley, who they may be forced to buyout in the wake of a grievance filed by the NBA Players' Association, it wouldn't make sense for them to do so by getting rid of two players the front office likes, and by taking on Felton, Mohammed and May.
May is a modern-day version of Oliver Miller, without the range or at least history of moderate fitness. He's played in just 17 games this season for a whopping 14.5 minutes each appearance. Oh yeah, and there's the minor issue that he hasn't played since Dec. 11 as Charlotte waits for him to trim down.
Mohammed is a solid big man and is reliable, but with a ceiling that is rather low at the age of 31. He's only averaging 8.9 minutes in 35 games this season, but does look pretty desirable alongside May.
There's also the fact that Mohammed and May would be fighting for Foster's minutes. Neither, in my opinion, would be stepping into Indiana and taking time away from rookie Roy Hibbert, Rasho Nesterovic or Troy Murphy at the four and five spots.
Felton is a nice player, and someone that still possess potential, but what are the Pacers going to do with three points guard worthy of at least 25 minutes, or more, of action per game?
If they are going to take on someone like Felton, I'd imagine that they'd being dealing Jarrett Jack (assuming they like T.J. Ford better) at the same time.
The six-player swap simply doesn't seem to jive with what the Pacers are trying to do, which I assume is to contend for a playoff spot while also giving the current roster a chance to gel for a full season.
Now, let's take a look at the financial end of the "deal."
The outcome this season, obviously, would be relatively even thanks to the rules of the CBA, but the story slightly changes in the coming seasons.
Next season, Tinsley, Foster and Rush will make roughly $15 million combined. Meanwhile, the trio of Felton, Mohammed and May stand to make $15.5 million in 2009-10.
Why aren't their salaries set in stone?
Both Felton and May have qualifying offers for next season, meaning that the Pacers will have to pay them at least $9 million (combined) in 2009-10. If long-term deals are reached, as unlikely as that may seem in May's case, that number could increase by a few million.
For a team that's well under .500, that is still hovering above the NBA's "soft" salary cap, and isn't thriving financially, acquiring three players that could be more expensive than the three they are giving up doesn't make a whole lot of sense.
In 2010-11, Tinsley and Foster's deals with be in their final years, and Rush will have team option. That's a cap number of around $16 million.
That same season, only Mohammed will still be playing with Indiana under the same contract, at a little less than $7 million. Assuming the Pacers sign Felton long-term, which is far from a lock, the combined salary of Mohammed and Felton would likely hover around $13-$16 million.
No matter how you look at it, the "proposed" Indiana-Charlotte trade doesn't seem like a step in the right direction for the Pacers.
It goes against what O'Brien and Morway have said recently, it would involve trading at least one player (either Foster or Rush) that the team values and doesn't appear willing to give up, and it wouldn't save the team a lot of money (if any at all) in the long-term.
With that said, the trade deadline wouldn't be as much fun if we couldn't envision how "proposed" deals would play out.
Andrew Perna is Deputy Editor of RealGM.com and co-host of RealGM’s Radio Show. Please feel free to contact him with comments or questions via e-mail:
Andrew.Perna@RealGM.com
