Home   Help Login Register  
Pages: 1 2 [3] 4 5 ... 8   Go Down
 
Author Topic: CHI-POR  (Read 17138 times)
phiboy207
Starter
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 929


« Reply #30 on: May 28, 2008, 02:24:45 am »

Quote from: "Drexler-Roy"
Phiboy you say one player on the perimeter but Portland will probably be adding the best European player in Rudy Fernandez next year providing a second such player.Rudy and Roy should be able to play at the same time with only minor problems but creating more problems for the opposition.
 Hinrich would be a good player to add AT THE RIGHT PRICE but you ask for essential a 4-1 deal
 You say bringing in Hinrich won't affect chemistry but Blake and Pryzbilla are a big part of that chemistry.
Portland also suffered from rebounding problems this season.Bringing in Oden will solve a lot of that problem but it would regress losing Pryzbilla
 You only look at the benefits Hinrich would add to the team but fail to see what the cost of losing the players you ask for in trade will have to the team
 If Chicago takes Rose ,which is what would make Hinrich available, they then will have other needs. A fair trade for Hinrich from Portland would probably be LaFrentz(expiring) + 13th. Chicago will not get much more than that from anybody as every team will know that Chicago now has a $10million backup point guard who just had a bad season,perhaps his worst in the league.
1st LaFrentz.  I'd think LaFrentz is more important to POR plans than Przybilla.  Yes, I know, LaFrentz isn't as good as/won't play as much as Przybilla would, but the cap space issue is the thing that gets me.  LaFrentz contract comes off POR cap at an ideal time - after next year.  Without that head room, POR may not be able to offer a max contract (there are ifs, ands, and buts to this, but I'm guessing salary will be around $16 million; Qualifying offers about $12 mil; and team options around $17 million - $45 mil means they could prolly offer the max).  After next off season though, the extensions that you will start handing out means that you'll be over the cap for the foreseeable future, albeit with a team that would prolly deserve it.  Getting Hinrich in the deal here wouldn't affect the cap room next off season - actually it might even help since getting a max deal under the cap could be close and Hinrich would count less than the combo of Przybilla and Blake (and #13 and the other prospect).  On the other hand, getting Hinrich for LaFrentz means that you'd have to sign and trade for any big-name FAs.  With a playoff run next year and without many in the '04 draft class with extensions, that could be a good time to have that sort of cap room.  All it takes is a Deng, Smith, Childress, Okafor, or (insert your favorite player from that draft class here...except Howard) to simply sign the tender this off season and then he could be had in the UFA market next year.  Yes, losing Przybilla would hurt, but it's easier to find a bulk rebounder and OK interior presence than a 2nd tier PG or a legit starting SF.
Back to the heart of the discussion though, as mentioned, POR is on the verge of something that could be very good, possibly even great, but there are parts that are needed.  With the interior set and 3-PTers galore, possibly the biggest hole left is the 2nd play maker on the perimeter.  Would you risk the biggest current hole of the team on a player whose game may or may not translate into the NBA?  Fernandez may be a special talent who should be able to pair with Roy on the wing.  But everything I've seen on him says he's a shot maker with a somewhat ?able handle.  Even his passing ability is more in the "good for a SG" than Jason Kidd category.  So I ? him playing PG.  I would think that if you are truly sold on Fernandez, then getting a veteran PG should be a high priority with Fernandez filling the SF position (or leave Fernandez @ SG with Roy moving over).  If nothing else, it's better to allow a 1st year player to grow into the NBA game with the advantage of working within the system, instead of having to run the show.  
As for the chemistry thing, in all honesty, if a player is a team guy and helps a team win, then he won't affect chemistry negatively.  Hinrich is that, as is Blake and Przybilla.  It's pretty much a wash.  The NBA is a business and players understand that, if someone has to go to bring in someone that brings you closer to a championship, then that's what has to happen.  If a player wants to hang out with some old friends more than win a championship more then that player should prolly go as well.  I'm not knocking Przybilla's or Blake's contribution in the locker room here, just saying that the Hinrich shares the same attitude that seems pervasive in POR's locker room and I can't see plugging Hinrich in for those 2 would cause a big commotion among the team - especially in the expected boost in Ws as the newly-configured team has Oden and Hinrich instead of Blake and Przybilla.

As for CHI, I can't see them dumping Hinrich.  I'd imagine their plan is to shop him, and if they can't find a decent offer (and I can't see an expiring plus a mid-1st being acceptable), then the fall back plan would be to dump Gordon.  I could see Hinrich getting 30+ minutes/game in CHI with Rose and Highes also getting 30 and Thabo getting what's left.   Hinrich has a good enough all-around game to see some minutes @ SG (prolly even start there) and backup PG, and he has some value to CHI in that he can help the young Rose with picking up the nuances of the NBA.  If Rose struggles @ PG @ 1st, then Hinrich could run the offense while Rose gets his feet wet @ SG before he moves over without even adjusting the starting lineup.  Also, Hinrich's D would allow Rose more freedom since Hinrich would cover the opponent's bigger outside threat in the front court.  That's too much value to simply dump.  Gordon, on the other hand, is seen as a ball hog on O, a off-and-on defender, and somewhat of a malcontent off the court (more so from the contract rumblings than anything else though).  Gordon could be dumped; Hinrich, eh, not so much.  Getting 2 journeymen, a decent prospect, and a maybe prospect wouldn't be a great haul for Hinrich, but the fact that the pieces would be round pegs for round holes would be the selling point to them.  Actually, I figured I'd catch more flak here from CHI fans than you which is the big reason we're still discussing this a week later, since I am confused that the team getting the best player is the team screaming the most - not that it's a bad thing, it's interesting to see what POR fans think since I'm clear across the country and don't get to chat with ya'll too much.
Logged

Drexler-Roy
All-Star
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 3716



« Reply #31 on: May 28, 2008, 12:55:13 pm »

Phiboy Hinrich is coming off a career poor year(41% fg) and he has a big contract($37.5million over next 4 yrs).His value has never been lower.He is perceived more as a combo guard than a lead guard.Furthermore if Chicago does take Rose every gm in the NBA will see that the Bulls are overloaded at the one and realize that a trade of Hinrich must occur and will thus lowball any offers made.Hinrichs contract is  about the same as Pryzbillas and Blakes combined so actually will cost Portland a little space in the year Portland goes under the cap as Blakes will expire that year(Pritchard has been very aware of contracts and when they need to expire)
 Again for emphasis Hinrich last year had a career poor year and has a sizable contract(which most teams can not take on without sending back players they consider key) meaning the offers for his services while there will not be great. In fact I would not be suprised if Portland's initial offer in trade was LaFrentz and a second
Logged

Greenwing wrote
Finally, I'm going to state this right now.  The Bulls will have a better record next season that the Portland Trailblazers.
Portland record 54-28
Chicago record 41-41
phiboy207
Starter
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 929


« Reply #32 on: May 29, 2008, 07:24:49 am »

Quote from: "Drexler-Roy"
Phiboy Hinrich is coming off a career poor year(41% fg) and he has a big contract($37.5million over next 4 yrs).His value has never been lower.He is perceived more as a combo guard than a lead guard.Furthermore if Chicago does take Rose every gm in the NBA will see that the Bulls are overloaded at the one and realize that a trade of Hinrich must occur and will thus lowball any offers made.Hinrichs contract is  about the same as Pryzbillas and Blakes combined so actually will cost Portland a little space in the year Portland goes under the cap as Blakes will expire that year(Pritchard has been very aware of contracts and when they need to expire)
 Again for emphasis Hinrich last year had a career poor year and has a sizable contract(which most teams can not take on without sending back players they consider key) meaning the offers for his services while there will not be great. In fact I would not be suprised if Portland's initial offer in trade was LaFrentz and a second
Dunno about Blake's contract since terms weren't announced, but the HH salaries page has the contract extending into the '09/'10 season - could be a team option.  Even so, Przybilla and the #13 should be within $1 mil of Hinrich's salary - so the cap isn't too far out of line, even if Blake is sent packing.
As for Hinrich, we're traveling old ground, but the reports I'm seeing are that GMs think he's a good player who had one bad year when the entire team went in the tank.  He did keep fighting until very late though.  His contract isn't outrageous - remember that the biggest salary has already been paid.  Basically, some opposing GMs (well, at least 1, but he was quoted as an unnamed source in 2 or 3 places) thinks that the Bulls "shouldn't have any problem moving him" - another way of stating they should get decent value.  In this deal, his value is still lower than a fairly young, solid all around PG with 15/7 career #s should bring in, so I figured I accounted for some depreciation in value here.  Also, any PG over 6'2" who can shoot and does not have elite passing skills is called a combo G at some point - I'm starting to think it's meant as a compliment.
Logged

Drexler-Roy
All-Star
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 3716



« Reply #33 on: May 29, 2008, 12:58:22 pm »

Decent value may be what Chicago gets for Hinrich but unless Chicago takes a bad contract in exchange the number of teams that will be seeking Hinrich are limited.
 Also what is decent value for a player who is not now nor likely to be ever an all star?A late first rounder? What you are asking is a late LOTTERY pick ,2 current Portland starters and a past 1st round pick(a 7 footer by the way) who while currently in Europe is getting some pretty decent reviews. That goes beyond decent into incredible value. A Portland offer of LaFrentz and the 13th is more than decent by itself and Portland could possibly offer second round pick(s) and Lafrentz and it could still be a fair deal
Logged

Greenwing wrote
Finally, I'm going to state this right now.  The Bulls will have a better record next season that the Portland Trailblazers.
Portland record 54-28
Chicago record 41-41
nester66
Star
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1633



« Reply #34 on: May 29, 2008, 04:42:22 pm »

I hope kp doesn't tip his hand and get rid of all the cap room we will have in the next offseason by getting kirk. He just isn't the answer they are looking for and is way overpaid. Kirk would be a much better fit on a team like the cavs or heat.
Logged

phiboy207
Starter
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 929


« Reply #35 on: May 29, 2008, 05:06:24 pm »

Quote from: "Drexler-Roy"
Decent value may be what Chicago gets for Hinrich but unless Chicago takes a bad contract in exchange the number of teams that will be seeking Hinrich are limited.
 Also what is decent value for a player who is not now nor likely to be ever an all star?A late first rounder? What you are asking is a late LOTTERY pick ,2 current Portland starters and a past 1st round pick(a 7 footer by the way) who while currently in Europe is getting some pretty decent reviews. That goes beyond decent into incredible value. A Portland offer of LaFrentz and the 13th is more than decent by itself and Portland could possibly offer second round pick(s) and Lafrentz and it could still be a fair deal
We've become a broken record here.
Hinrich's deal is on par with other 2nd tier PGs.  His contract is similar to Andre Miller's which would be about right.  Is it a great contract?  No, but it isn't horrid either.  Can you supply examples of 2nd tier PGs with more leverage (aka, no rookie contracts) at the time of the deal with contracts that pay significantly less (i.e., more than $2 mil/year less)?  There are definitely examples of PGs that he is better than that get more (Marbury and Bibby jump immediately to mind).     There may be one or two that make less, but, by and large, the remainder of his deal is in line with what other 2nd tier PGs are getting.
CHI may or may not be willing to take a contract to get a better deal - I don't know.  But League GMs seem to think Hinrich has value and CHI could get a market deal for him.  In an earlier post (that was never rebutted), I defined a market deal more than what SAC got for Bibby since a) SAC got panned for the deal and b) Hinrich is better than Bibby (injury ?s, versatility, age, overall game - specifically D).  Is this deal really that out of line with that one?  The prospects are about a wash - maybe a slight advantage to this deal since CHI gets to pick their own B-level prospect, but not by much.  Remember that as far as I'm concerned Freeland can be subbed out for the #36 pick (I'd believe that that would be advantage CHI for a variety of reasons, but whatever, if you'd prefer that then that's fine).
The only real difference between the Bibby deal and this one is the fact that there are 2 journeymen instead of $10 mil in expiring contracts.  Now would that significantly impact the value of the deal?  For CHI, it wouldn't surprise me if Paxson actually decided that the expirings would be better value since he would only have about $25 mil committed after next year.  But with the #1 pick this year, he should focus on building a supporting environment around Rose (if he's the pick; if not, then this entire thread is moot) now and then improve his team to championship caliber later.  Journeymen help with that and should have more value to CHI than an expiring deal.  For POR, there are apparently some strong emotions among the fans, but really the expiring contracts have more worth than the 2 journeymen.  On the one hand, POR should now be able to put the onus of winning on the young players in house and should not need to resort to journeymen to supply solid but unspectacular play.  This is an important step in the development of a young team, and if the team fails to take that step, then the cap room would be even more important to fill in the holes that can be seen in that failure.  Even looking at the outgoing journeymen, one of them would be upgraded anyway and would only serve to block the PG prospects already in the fold.  The other would inhibit cap and roster flexibility when it could be the last time that POR could really dabble in the UFA market since the young core will start to get extensions after that.  With a bright outlook on the next 5-10 years, limiting the options that could make or break the team could be disastrous.  Hence, CHI gets more value, while POR gives less.  This seems to me a decent solution to the issue of matching the Bibby deal without breaking the bank.
Now, unless you can give me a good reason that Hinrich's value should not be considered on par with or more than Bibby's or why this deal is significantly out of line with that deal (from a GM perspective - not a fans), I honestly feel that the value statements really doesn't hold any water.  Oh, and please back up the argument with some facts or examples - not emotions.  At the very least, we'll be able to get into the nuts and bolts of the disagreement instead of going in circles.
Logged

Drexler-Roy
All-Star
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 3716



« Reply #36 on: May 30, 2008, 01:05:41 pm »

Phiboy you want Portland to give up a lot for a player who if he ties his career best year would still be only the FOURTH best player on the Blazer roster at best.If Fernandez plays up to expectations and Outlaw continues to improve Hinrich could be the SIXTH best player on the Blazers. In exchange for this one player you ask for a lottery pick,2 of this seasons starters and the rights to another first round pick.Of those two starters is a 7'1" 245 lb defensive center who rebounds quite well and is better at center than anybody currently in Chicago. The other starter you ask for plays the same position as Hinrich and statistically speaking was almost as good as Hinrich.
 Hinrich at his best his a good but not great guard. Question would Sacramento choosing one spot ahead of Portland even offer their 12th overall alone for Hinrich? The answer is no. The ONLY reason Portland is even willing to offer the 13th and an expiring is because Portland feels ready to start competing for top playoff spots and titles soon.Portland will not give away talent far above what they get in return.There are other good point guards who are available.For what you ask for Hinrich I believe Minnesota would consider giving up the 3rd(though I believe Webster would probably need to be switched for Blake)
Logged

Greenwing wrote
Finally, I'm going to state this right now.  The Bulls will have a better record next season that the Portland Trailblazers.
Portland record 54-28
Chicago record 41-41
phiboy207
Starter
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 929


« Reply #37 on: May 31, 2008, 01:38:17 pm »

If Hinrich is the 4th or even the 6th best player on POR (I'm not so sure he would be, but fine), then why is this a problem?  He is still the best PG and will get starter minutes.  It's not like a 4th big where he'd get a few minutes/game only to show off a speciality.  The other thing here is that it's best for a PG to be surrounded by quality players; it gives him more options to pass.
When are you going to get it out of your head that Przybilla is not just a journeyman?  On a championship club, he is best suited as a backup - possibly not even a primary one.  It does not matter how big he is nor how deficient other teams are @ the position he plays nor how good of a rebounder you are, 5 ppg in the best year as a pro gets you replaced, as POR has already done.  I mean, c'mon,  you've droned on endlessly about a player that has similar value (and salary and size and game - albeit with less D, but more rebounds) to Dan Gadzuric.  Gadzuric could prolly be a starter on CHI too!  And Gadzuric actually replaced Przybilla in MIL a few years ago.  So does that mean he's a starter and should be considered as such for any trade that involves him?  No, he's a journeyman and should be considered as such - the same with Przybilla.  Is it really worth it to you to keep a backup C so as to not get an upgrade a position of weakness?  Or do you not trust the GM who has rumors swirling that he is looking for a better PG knows what he's doing and think that Blake should be the PG of the near future?
As far as the SAC argument, I honestly have no idea why this even matters.  First, of course teams on the rise will try to get better, while teams on the decline try to trade their parts for a rebuilding effort.  That's why 90% of the trades that happen have the better player going to the better team.  Are you just realizing this?  As for the other point, SAC just got rid of a 2nd tier PG because they we're going with his replacement - Udrih, so why would they be fishing for a starting PG?  Now, would ATL have tried to cobble together something if we didn't get Bibby?  You could almost bet the house on it.  The only reason to hesitate would be the ? of if the new GM would decide to bring in a new style.
Logged

Drexler-Roy
All-Star
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 3716



« Reply #38 on: May 31, 2008, 02:33:48 pm »

Pryzbilla is way better than Gadzuric at this stage and will play a role very similar to Dkembe Mutombo in Houston
A team does not become a top contender by overpaying for a player who even at his best is not a huge difference.
With adding Rudy Fernandez next year and still having Jack Hinrich would not necessarily play a lot of minutes so does his talent drop to 3rd tier?
 Of course by doing nothing Portland could just wait one year and pick up Bibby in free agency couldn't they?Still have the first and Pryzbilla
 I reiterate Hinrich would be a nice addition to the Blazers AT THE RIGHT PRICE. The going rate for a guard of Hinrichs skills is not as high as you seem to believe. A first and an expiring is quite fair for Hinrich. A first,a center who can rebound and defend,a good quality guard and draft rights to another first rounder is too much.
 Blake is not a bad starting point guard and Portland can live with him and look at other options if Chicago wants too much for Hinrich.However if the Bulls draft Rose and enter next season not having traded Hinrich look for his value to drop even further
Logged

Greenwing wrote
Finally, I'm going to state this right now.  The Bulls will have a better record next season that the Portland Trailblazers.
Portland record 54-28
Chicago record 41-41
nester66
Star
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1633



« Reply #39 on: June 01, 2008, 05:05:17 am »

I agree, no way we want captain kirk. Not straight up for raef. KP has said a number of times that he is saving for the next offseason, after watching and evaluating the team with oden in the mix and deciding what we need and going to get it. Also, we got offered andre miller and turned down the deal, and all they wanted was outlaw and the pick, so why take kirk? If we get anyone, kp has said a few times he wanted calderon. That is looking unlikely, but I doubt kirk is the type of pg we want at all. KP will be patient, knock on wood.
Logged

phiboy207
Starter
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 929


« Reply #40 on: June 01, 2008, 11:35:09 am »

Quote from: "Drexler-Roy"
Pryzbilla is way better than Gadzuric at this stage and will play a role very similar to Dkembe Mutombo in Houston
I wouldn't put Dikembe's value with Przybilla and Gadzuric strictly because of age (Dikembe's is lower than the other 2), but yes, all should play the same role as a backup C for a good team.  So why the huge push to not trade him for a better part somewhere else?
Quote from: "Drexler-Roy"
A team does not become a top contender by overpaying for a player who even at his best is not a huge difference.
I think that getting a veteran PG will have a bigger effect than you realize. It would not only give you better production out of the PG slot, but Roy should add to his game as well since the perimeter D could not focus on him as much.  I've seen it 1st hand and the difference is huge.
Quote from: "Drexler-Roy"
With adding Rudy Fernandez next year and still having Jack Hinrich would not necessarily play a lot of minutes so does his talent drop to 3rd tier?
Counting on rookies is a huge mistake, especially one that to take minutes from the PG position would have to make a position switch (for him or another member of the team).  With Splitter deciding to stay overseas, the fact that Fernandez is already a stud there makes the proposition even more scary.  Even so, Hinrich would still get his minutes.  I still can't see Fernandez @ PG; every decent scouting report I've seen ?s his handle - a killer for a PG.  Not every G can be a passable PG.
Quote from: "Drexler-Roy"
Of course by doing nothing Portland could just wait one year and pick up Bibby in free agency couldn't they?Still have the first and Pryzbilla
Waiting a year could be a big mistake.  Why not go for it?  You could be an upper echelon team in the W and next year's FAs would have to take a serious look if they want to join a winner.  If you wait, your prolly staring @ the 6th or 7th seed and FAs would wonder if you'll ever really put something together around Oden.  All waiting ever serves to do is disenfranchise the "on the fence" fans you have now, while giving up the die-hards the ability to say "we could be good in a few years".  Most of the time the team isn't nearly as good as the die-hards believe since a malaise drops over the team.  It happens in every sport.
As for Bibby, you can prolly have him.  He's aging quickly and injuries are taking a toll.  Signing him to the long term contract he'll demand next off season is an iffy proposition at best.  He's a West Coast guy anyway, so he prolly won't stay with the Hawks.
Quote from: "Drexler-Roy"
 I reiterate Hinrich would be a nice addition to the Blazers AT THE RIGHT PRICE. The going rate for a guard of Hinrichs skills is not as high as you seem to believe. A first and an expiring is quite fair for Hinrich. A first,a center who can rebound and defend,a good quality guard and draft rights to another first rounder is too much.
I have compared this deal to the Bibby deal and see no reason to change that.  Why would you believe that the deals should differ?  Why do you believe that there is a significant difference between the 2?  As I have pointed out, 2 journeymen instead of expiring contracts isn't as big a difference as you tend to believe, even to the point that POR should keep the expiring over the 2 journeymen.
Quote from: "Drexler-Roy"
 Blake is not a bad starting point guard and Portland can live with him and look at other options if Chicago wants too much for Hinrich.However if the Bulls draft Rose and enter next season not having traded Hinrich look for his value to drop even further
As noted, NBA GMs think that CHI could get market value for him now.  If CHI decides to hold onto him, then they'll have a role for him.  If he doesn't fit the role, then yes, his value would drop, but at that point who cares?  If you wait long enough Shaq's value will drop to the point where you could get him on the cheap, but would you want too?  Waiting around causes one to believe that average players are good since you have nothing to compare them too.  You need good players around elite ones to win championships.  So why not start now?
Quote from: "nester66"
I agree, no way we want captain kirk. Not straight up for raef. KP has said a number of times that he is saving for the next offseason, after watching and evaluating the team with oden in the mix and deciding what we need and going to get it. Also, we got offered andre miller and turned down the deal, and all they wanted was outlaw and the pick, so why take kirk? If we get anyone, kp has said a few times he wanted calderon. That is looking unlikely, but I doubt kirk is the type of pg we want at all. KP will be patient, knock on wood.
I've always seen Hinrich as the type of player that would fit well with the team and scheme POR is putting together - unselfish, fundamentally sound, good jump shooter, relatively young, good defender.  What would POR be looking for in a PG if not for these attributes?
Logged

Drexler-Roy
All-Star
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 3716



« Reply #41 on: June 01, 2008, 12:01:26 pm »

Phiboy you want Portland to severely overpay for Hinrich
A 7'1" defensive and rebounding center is a valuable commodity all by itself They are hard to come by and should not lightly be tossed aside
Statistically speaking there is not a great difference between Hinrich and Blake this past season
You say bringing in Hinrich will vastly improve Portland. I question how great a difference he will make.This past season was a bad year for Hinrich and counting on a rebound to better years is as risky as counting on a rookie
Say the trade occurs as you ask what happens to each players performance
Pryz probably starts for Chicago averages 5ppg 9rpg Blake backup off the bench probably 8ppg 4apg then whoever the rookie is
Hinrich probably puts up the same numbers as last year.Thus statistically just the two players outperform Hinrich Without the rookie or Freelands numbers added in
You say waiting a year is a mistake I disagree by waiting a year we pick up Bibby AND another top free agent keep Pryz ,the rights to Freeland AND whomever we draft.Much better in the long term
Once again Hinrich for the right price yes but only for the right price.The right price under these circumstances isNO MORE THAN LAFRENTZ AND 13 and even that is overpaying to a certain extent
Logged

Greenwing wrote
Finally, I'm going to state this right now.  The Bulls will have a better record next season that the Portland Trailblazers.
Portland record 54-28
Chicago record 41-41
phiboy207
Starter
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 929


« Reply #42 on: June 02, 2008, 02:50:15 pm »

Quote from: "Drexler-Roy"
Phiboy you want Portland to severely overpay for Hinrich
I have no idea why you keep saying this.  I have given a trade to base this trade off of and shown that the values are similar considering the relative value of the traded player, but I haven't seen a rebuttal to these premises on why that trade should not be the basis for this one.
Quote from: "Drexler-Roy"
A 7'1" defensive and rebounding center is a valuable commodity all by itself They are hard to come by and should not lightly be tossed aside
Agreed, but scared money don't make none.  You have to give something to get something, and a journeyman C isn't such a value that it should stop a deal in which a core player would be obtained.
Quote from: "Drexler-Roy"
Statistically speaking there is not a great difference between Hinrich and Blake this past season
Once again, old ground without rebuttal elsewhere.  Career numbers establish that Hinrich is clearly the better player.  Should Hinrich be downgraded for one bad year?  Should Blake be upgraded for one career year?  To a small degree, yes, but to discount Hinrich as not being a good answer would be a mistake...as would counting on Blake to be the long term solution.  
Quote from: "Drexler-Roy"
You say bringing in Hinrich will vastly improve Portland. I question how great a difference he will make.This past season was a bad year for Hinrich and counting on a rebound to better years is as risky as counting on a rookie
Why?  One bad year does not signify a degradation of production unless other factors are involved.  Injuries and age are two of the most common factors involved when projecting further degradation of production and I don't see that with Hinrich.  Extending the point from above, Hinrich's career numbers suggest his is a 2nd tier PG.  Why would it be considered a risk that he'd reassume those numbers?  Because of 1 year?  Then why should Blake be considered a good answer when he's had basically 1 very good year (well, for him)?  In both cases, it's really just one year...
Quote from: "Drexler-Roy"
Say the trade occurs as you ask what happens to each players performance
Pryz probably starts for Chicago averages 5ppg 9rpg Blake backup off the bench probably 8ppg 4apg then whoever the rookie is
Hinrich probably puts up the same numbers as last year.Thus statistically just the two players outperform Hinrich Without the rookie or Freelands numbers added in
This seems pessimistic to me.  Blake's numbers went up over his career numbers with POR this past season, so why wouldn't Hinrich's?  I put out Hinrich's numbers @ 15/8 with very solid shooting %s (prolly better than Blake's...espeically the FT%).  I grant that you'll lose some rebounds, but with Oden coming on board, how many do you honestly believe would you lose?
Another way of looking @ this is looking @ the Garnett trade.  From a purely statistical viewpoint, Jefferson and Gomes outperformed Garnett by a much larger margin than what you project this trade @.  Now, kick in Telfair, a decent prospect in Green (at least at the time), the 2 1sts, and Ratliff's expiring then the deal looks overwhelming in favor of Minny.  So why is no one in BOS complaining - at the time of the deal or now?  It's simple: the one player changed the way teams played the Celtics in such a way that the entire team became better.  The upgrade from Blake to Hinrich should do the same.
Quote from: "Drexler-Roy"
You say waiting a year is a mistake I disagree by waiting a year we pick up Bibby AND another top free agent keep Pryz ,the rights to Freeland AND whomever we draft.Much better in the long term
1st, you can't get 2 FAs next year without a sign-and-trade.  The $30 million under the cap figure does not include team options or qualifying offers for everyone under a rookie contract last year (Oden, Aldridge, Roy, Webster, Frye, Jack, Sergio) nor the salary paid to Blake (since terms were not announced).  In reality, you can sign 1 big name FA, then you'd have to start using cap exceptions - MLE, BAE, etc.
Second, are you really suggesting waiting on Bibby?  Why?  Bibby's contract is already above max and if you plan on giving him more, then he may demand a sign-and-trade to get more money - so you'd wait a year to end up in the same place your in now.  The new ATL GM is preaching change.  If that means "fire sale and we're going with the young guns" or more subtle changes, I dunno, but without any assets to affect change to the roster (no draft picks; no real trade assets that aren't in our core), the new ATL GM would prolly be amenable to trade offers for Bibby.  Honestly, Sergio or Jack, the #13 overall, and LaFrentz would get me to jump on your offer.  Anything less and we'd prolly put you on hold until after we deal JJ (if, indeed, it is a fire sale - of course the deal could be expanded to include JJ, but we'd prolly demand at least one of the players in your core and prospects).  Since we aren't the GMs of our teams though, I'll tell you "buyer beware": Bibby sat out many key games for us last year due to injury and appears to be aging faster than you'd expect for someone of his ilk (possibly due to the injury concerns).
Quote from: "Drexler-Roy"
Once again Hinrich for the right price yes but only for the right price.The right price under these circumstances isNO MORE THAN LAFRENTZ AND 13 and even that is overpaying to a certain extent
CHI may or may not like LaFrentz's expiring more than the combo of Blake and Przybilla, I have no idea, but why POR would is still beyond me.  The cap flexibility in next year's FA market should be more important what amounts to 1 journeyman C (since Blake would be replaced by Hinrich anyway).  I can say that there would be a need for another prospect, although it may not need to be anything more than something around a 2nd round value.
Logged

Drexler-Roy
All-Star
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 3716



« Reply #43 on: June 02, 2008, 05:45:42 pm »

Quote
Drexler-Roy wrote:
Phiboy you want Portland to severely overpay for Hinrich
I have no idea why you keep saying this. I have given a trade to base this trade off of and shown that the values are similar considering the relative value of the traded player, but I haven't seen a rebuttal to these premises on why that trade should not be the basis for this one.

I keep saying this because it is true.You are asking for 2 starters of a team that won more games AND essentially 2 first round draft picks.In exchange you are offering a player who is coming off a bad year and even if he returns to form is still no all star.Not even close

   
1st, you can't get 2 FAs next year without a sign-and-trade. The $30 million under the cap figure does not include team options or qualifying offers for everyone under a rookie contract last year (Oden, Aldridge, Roy, Webster, Frye, Jack, Sergio) nor the salary paid to Blake (since terms were not announced). In reality, you can sign 1 big name FA, then you'd have to start using cap exceptions - MLE, BAE, etc.

 Even after the qo's etc Portland could still easily be $20million under the cap more than enough to sign at least one top tier free agent and one other starter quality
Quote
This seems pessimistic to me. Blake's numbers went up over his career numbers with POR this past season, so why wouldn't Hinrich's? I put out Hinrich's numbers @ 15/8 with very solid shooting %s (prolly better than Blake's...espeically the FT%
 Portland will be adding Rudy Fernandez as well shots probably won't be available for Hinrich

Now a question if Hinrich is so good and Blake and Pryzbilla are as mediocre at best as you say why do you want them so bad?Why not take the offer I proposed LaFrentz and the 13th?I'll answer for you.Pryzbilla is a starting center for many teams.Not top tier by any means but still good quality.Blake also would be a great quality backup to Rose and would put up similar numbers to Hinrich in the same situation
 Hinrich is a good player but he is not worth 2 starters and 2 firsts.To give up that much Portland could conceivably get Bayless.I'm sure Minnesota would love to have Pryz to put next to Jefferson while also getting two firsts and Blake.If not Seattle might just to have a physical bodyguard next to Durant
Logged

Greenwing wrote
Finally, I'm going to state this right now.  The Bulls will have a better record next season that the Portland Trailblazers.
Portland record 54-28
Chicago record 41-41
phiboy207
Starter
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 929


« Reply #44 on: June 03, 2008, 12:51:07 am »

Quote from: "Drexler-Roy"
Even after the qo's etc Portland could still easily be $20million under the cap more than enough to sign at least one top tier free agent and one other starter quality
From the numbers I'm seeing the hh salary page, here's the current projection: committed contracts - 15.86 mil (Przybilla, Outlaw, Blake*); Team Options - 17.01 mil (Oden, Aldridge, Roy, Sergio); Qualifying Offers - 12.20 mil (Webster, Frye, Jack); total - 45.06 mil (total is rounded after adding the actual salaries listed).  Assuming a cap of $60 mil - a 2+ million increase over the next 2 year, a fair assumption - then POR would be a little less than $15 mil under the cap.  If POR brings over Fernandez this year, keeps the #13, and exercises the #22 pick next year, that'll add another $4 mil, leaving POR around $11 mil under the cap.  The 4 2nd round picks this year and next would prolly come in around $3-4 mil (if they make the roster), but we'll stash them overseas for this discussion - leaving POR $11 mil under the cap.  With a $60 mil cap, the max contract would be $15 mil.

Scenario a) do nothing.  $11 mil under the cap - not quite "near max" category.

Scenario b) trade in the OP.  About $14.75 mil under the cap - close enough to maneuver into max category without much impact (say going from #22 pick in '09 to #30).
The committed salaries drop by a little less than $3 mil (Blake + Przybilla - Hinrich = $2.9 mil in savings) and the about $2 mil for the #13 pick goes away as well.

Scenario c) LaFrentz and prospects for Hinrich: $4 mil under the cap - might as well use the MLE instead of worrying about staying under the cap.
Hinrich's contract ($9 mil then) get added to the bottom line since no other  committed salaries are lost, but add back in the $2 mil for the #13 pick.

This is why I wonder why POR would prefer to trade LaFrentz compared to Przybilla and Blake.  The difference come next off season is pretty big, especially since there haven't been too many players from the '04 draft class that has signed an extension yet.  Even the $4 mil saved over doing nothing is big, just ask CHI who dumped Chandler to get Wallace under the cap.

*Blake is assumed @ $5 mil.  Actual # could vary by about $1 mil up or down.  Total numbers for Scenario B is not affected, but the others would vary with Blake's contract.
Sorry, but I actual enjoy this sh*t.
Quote from: "Drexler-Roy"
Portland will be adding Rudy Fernandez as well shots probably won't be available for Hinrich
For a jump shooting / ball movement team, the D should determine who gets the shots.  The scheme is only as good as the weakest link come the last 5 seconds of the shot clock.  Fernandez should add something, but if the D decides to give me the PG, then I'd still prefer the best I can get there.
Quote from: "Drexler-Roy"
Now a question if Hinrich is so good and Blake and Pryzbilla are as mediocre at best as you say why do you want them so bad?Why not take the offer I proposed LaFrentz and the 13th?I'll answer for you.Pryzbilla is a starting center for many teams.Not top tier by any means but still good quality.Blake also would be a great quality backup to Rose and would put up similar numbers to Hinrich in the same situation
 Hinrich is a good player but he is not worth 2 starters and 2 firsts.To give up that much Portland could conceivably get Bayless.I'm sure Minnesota would love to have Pryz to put next to Jefferson while also getting two firsts and Blake.If not Seattle might just to have a physical bodyguard next to Durant
Can't see SEA or MIN doing that deal.  The difference between the #3 or 4 and #13 is very large, the difference between Mayo or Bayless and, say, Joe Alexander is more than a couple of parts that you'd hope to replace within a year or two.
Honestly, Przybilla versus LaFrentz is actually a wash for what CHI would be looking for.  All CHI really wants is someone to pair with Gooden to give decent veteran competition for the #13 pick, Thomas, and Noah in practice - not necessarily PT.  Yes, minutes could be earned, but that isn't the primary reason for having them.  The fact that Przybilla could continue on as a backup C once one of those prospects breaks through is nice, but a backup C could be acquired later.  There is no need to worry about the backup C in 2 years right now.
Actually the bigger deal between the trade you proposed and the one in the OP from CHI viewpoint is 1) the 2nd prospect and 2) Blake.  The 2nd prospect is a big deal since it's another player that could in with Rose and, hopefully, build a team that Rose would grow with.  There's also a value reasoning there.  The rationale for Blake is that CHI wants a backup to Rose that would be good enough to give some quality minutes when Rose is struggling without being an embarrassment, but not good enough that people would get the idea that Rose might be a better fit @ the 2 (it's easier to shine without the stresses of PG duties and with such an obvious talent, people will want him on the court regardless of his struggles).  That player could be Hughes (and hence the comment about whether I don't know if Paxson would rather the expiring over the 2 journeymen), but that could be an embarrassment, so why not acquire the replacee of the guy your trading?
Unfortunately, if the trade was both Blake and LaFrentz, then that ends up meaning that the deal would need expanded from CHI's end, and I don't think they'd want to give anything more without getting more.  I guess the deal could be expanded to include Nocioni (I assume that CHI would want at least Outlaw and an '09 1st, prolly more), or CHI could send some their end of roster scraps (Simmons and JamesOn Curry might work, but I'm not sure if CHI would be willing to dump them considering both could be better prospects than the Freeland/2nd piece of the deal, so POR would have to upgrade that).  The other option would be to sub out 2 of Webster / Outlaw / Frye / Jones (but not Webster and Jones since it's 2 wings) for Przybilla and that's something that I would think POR wouldn't want to do that.  IMO, even the least valuable of the possible combination (Frye and Jones) still has more value than Przybilla in both the short and long term.  Hence, the reason that the deal could fall apart without Przybilla is really due to salary, not rebounding.
Logged

Pages: 1 2 [3] 4 5 ... 8   Go Up
 
 
Jump to: