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Author Topic: CHI-POR  (Read 16583 times)
phiboy207
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« Reply #90 on: June 08, 2008, 05:57:07 pm »

Quote from: "Drexler-Roy"
Phiboy you don't understand Portlands situation.Portland would LIKE to upgrade at the point but is not desperate to do so.Hinrich is a 12ppg 6.3apg 41% fg player.He is a good defender but not on Bowens level.Bowen is a 4 or 5 time FIRST TEAM ALL DEFENSE and has finished as one of the  TOP VOTE GETTERS FOR DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR.Hinrich is not in that class .
I realize what Bowen does, and I realize that the trio of Duncan, Parker, and Manu is currently better than the trio of Roy, Aldridge, and Oden.  For the POR trio to challenge the SAS trio, then players like Hinrich a very good defender with offensive ability would need to be around so that they could flourish.  The situations are analogous, the reason to pick the most obvious player who fills the role on another team is just to illustrate the point.
Quote from: "Drexler-Roy"
Fernandez has announced he is coming over. As I said if he is only 75% of expected he's more valuable to Portland than Hinrich.Roy can and has played the point. So they can easily be paired in the backcourt.
Maybe, but who would defend the opponent's PG?  If the opponent had a quick PG, then the player POR wants to bring the ball, couldn't bring it up since steals could be an issue (even if not, ball security would be a primary concern since Fernandez has very little handle and Roy's isn't in the NBA elite category - a must for a 6'6" PG).   Opponents could dictate POR personnel away from the starters - never a good thing.  Considering the rise of quick, penetrating PGs with the rise of the O that PHO runs (...or ran?) and has caught on in TOR, MEM and possibly NYK, using a SG @ PG is a very iffy proposition.  Sounds like something that might look good on paper, but may not be something that actually works on the court.  Keeping them both @ the wings (say, SF and SG) would prolly be the smartest move that POR could make there.
Quote from: "Drexler-Roy"
You also say you are not asking for a valuable asset.I beg to differ.I've told you several times Pryzbilla is seen as important to this team.His interior defense and rebounding alone make him valuable.The fact that he will be coming off the bench means he will be anchoring the defense when Oden isn't in the game.He will also be Odens mentor helping to teach NBA defense and rebounding.If Portland were to trade Pryz we could easily receive a first round pick from him.
As illustrated, Przybilla is a replaceable backup C.  Further, in 2 years, he'll be the most expensive player on POR's roster.  He is a player who'll see a degradation in minutes (not only from Oden, but also from Aldridge, maybe Frye, and possibly Outlaw), and a corresponding dropoff in production and, hence, value, yet a contract that keeps escalating.  This is actually a "sell high" proposition.
The mentor aspect is a valid point.  I do wonder why Oden would need 2 years with one but whatever.  
Quote from: "Drexler-Roy"
 The first you ask for also holds value.It can be traded along with other assets to move up in the draft.Without giving up either Pryzbilla or Blake I could see Portland moving up high enough to draft Westbrook whose defense is said to be very good(maybe as good as Hinrichs).As I asked Greenwing earlier name a trade involving Hinrich that brings in a first higher(or even close to ) than Portlands
Yes, you can do some things with #13.  Although Bayless prolly isn't obtainable, Westbrook is.  Unfortunately, Westbrook is another "questionable handle" player that may be able to transition to PG, but maybe not.  His outside jump shot is another ?, so I wonder how much he'd fit in with McMillan.  If he can't transition, then your left with a combo G (or, even worse, a non-contributor with a roster spot), and your still left with either a journeyman starting @ PG, or Jack whose upside looks more in the "solid starter" category than even 2nd tier PG.  Counting on rookies @ a position such as PG can yield some very unpredictable results.
Quote from: "Drexler-Roy"
 Cap room means options either in trade or free agency.In trade I cite the Charlotte trade last years draft for Jason Richardson.In free agency there will be better players than Hinrich available.However if able to obtain a good COMPLEMENTARY(which all Hinrich is in Portland) player when your roster is already basically set you can use the expirings to get a sure deal.
Michael Jordan just took the CHA job when he made that trade, he did not work hard to free up cap  room.  He was looking to make a big hit off the bat, not build through cap room and the draft - and led them right back to the lottery.  GMs that work to gather cap room want to use it to garner an All-Star - not a 2nd tier PG.
As for the FA route, you'll still have to trade unless you wait a year - no cap room.  Even then, to get a player better than Hinrich you'll still have to trade.  Thinking you can get someone better than a 2nd tier PG for "free" when you have around $11 mil free on a $60 mil cap is simply not realistic.  Not saying that you couldn't trade for someone here, but it'll be more expensive - especially in terms of prospects.
Quote from: "Drexler-Roy"
 Portland will not overpay.If need be Portland can wait until the trade deadline and use LaFrentz expiring to bring in a player then.Portland has many options Chicago fewer.If you do not want my offer of LaFrentz+13 fine I'm not willing to accept your offer either.Trade Hinrich or keep him. Realize though that between his stats and contract he will not bring in what you are asking
Once again, LaFrentz + 13 + another prospect (the 2nd or Sergio, both of which you mentioned before) would prolly be acceptable to CHI if they wish to base the deal on the Bibby deal which I have done.  I just can't see why POR would do it, and I haven't really seen a valid reason why.
As for the OP trade, I've actually given up a long time ago that you'd accept.  I wanted to see other things.

Quote from: "JoseJ"
  Hinrich isn't that much better than Blake, he's better but not by a lot. Hinrich was a B- level PG...now he fell off to a C+ level. Blake was your typical C level PG, but has improved close to a C+.

Both guys aren't starting PG's you want unless you have a Celtics or Laker like team where average PG's like Rondo and Fisher could look good.
You have Blake overrated, and Hinrich underrated.  NBA talent evaluators would put him in the top 4-5 defenders in the league (elected to All-NBA Defensive 2nd team), he's a borderline top 10 assist man - firmly in the 2nd tier of passers in the league, he's in the top 100 for career 3 PT %, and he's led team from bottom tier of NBA to near-elite in the East status without public complaints for more attention.  Let's see: he's a very good defender, good passer, decent 3-PT shooter, and a winner...what more do you want in a PG?  Blake is a player that no NBA GM saw fit to throw the MLE @ last off-season.  No, your putting a lot of stock in the 1 bad year of the entire CHI team and putting too much stock in someone that had a very average season as a 5th option when he was on the court.
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Jason Rubin
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« Reply #91 on: June 08, 2008, 06:03:48 pm »

Hinrich makes 10 million next year.  His contract is front-loaded - which is attractive for trade offers.  And as for anyone who thinks that Steve Blake is anywhere close to Hinrich's level, you are smoking some really weird stuff.
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nester66
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« Reply #92 on: June 08, 2008, 06:04:33 pm »

Again, Billups gets 10 million a year, Hinrich gets 11.25 million, according to the trade machine at ESPN. Both teams want to trade their PG's. Portland could go get either, IF they wanted too. Billups is a top tier point guard, Hinrich is a second teir pg like you said. Hinrich is getting paid more, and Billups has WAYYYYYYYYYYY more playoff experience. If your looking for a vet with championship experience and solid D, look no further. No way we pay this much for a second teir pg when we could pay the same for a top tier one.

Besides, no one in portland wants Hinrich. Every person I know is a blazers fan over here, and none think this would be smart on portlands side.

Though if I was a chicago fan I would argue for the trade until my eyes popped out, so I don't blame you.
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Jason Rubin
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« Reply #93 on: June 08, 2008, 06:06:16 pm »

Quote from: "nester66"
Again, Billups gets 10 million a year, Hinrich gets 11.25 million, according to the trade machine at ESPN. Both teams want to trade their PG's. Portland could go get either, IF they wanted too. Billups is a top tier point guard, Hinrich is a second teir pg like you said. Hinrich is getting paid more, and Billups has WAYYYYYYYYYYY more playoff experience. If your looking for a vet with championship experience and solid D, look no further. No way we pay this much for a second teir pg when we could pay the same for a top tier one.

Besides, no one in portland wants Hinrich. Every person I know is a blazers fan over here, and none think this would be smart on portlands side.

Though if I was a chicago fan I would argue for the trade until my eyes popped out, so I don't blame you.


Go look on HOOPSHYPE for salaries.  The ESPN trading machine is not updated for next season.
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nester66
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« Reply #94 on: June 08, 2008, 06:19:34 pm »

Oh, and just for sh$&'s and giggles I did this comparison. I took blakes numbers, divided them by the number of minutes played, and times that answer by the number of minutes played by hinrich. With this you can see how they compare if they play the same number of minutes through their careers so far:

             Hinrich:              Blake:
FG%:   41.4                      40.4
FT%:    81.6                      77.1
PPG:    14.4                      10.03
TR:       3.5                       2.9
APG:    6.4                        5.8
Blocks: .2                         .2
TO:       2.35                      2.03
Fouls:    3                          2.3
Steals:   1.3                       .9
3 %:      37.7                       38.1

Not worth 11 million to me. The results of them having equal playing time are barely even noticed.
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Drexler-Roy
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« Reply #95 on: June 08, 2008, 06:24:40 pm »

For the salary difference next season I would still prefer Billups for the same price
Phiboy as some ofthe players you mention as replacing Pryz (via FA for Portland) are Kwame Brown(one of the biggest busts ever),Chris Mihm(been injured the last two years) and Diop(just no talent) I question your judgement of NBA bigmen
 You also said Hinrich would be a "core member"of the Blazers roster and cited Bowen.Sorry but Hinrich does not come up to Bowen in standards of defense.One appearance on 2nd team D does not compare to FOUR on 1st team.Bowen has a career of hitting  key 3pointers as well
 Westbrook does lack ballhandling but if paired in the backcourt with Roy would only need to defend(and draft reports say he is a great defender) the point while leaving the ballhandling to Roy.BTW you question Westbrooks shooting touch but isn't Hinrichs a career 41% shooter?Westbrook is raw but would cost a lot less to obtain and a lot less under the salcap and is younger
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Greenwing wrote
Finally, I'm going to state this right now.  The Bulls will have a better record next season that the Portland Trailblazers.
Portland record 54-28
Chicago record 41-41
nester66
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« Reply #96 on: June 08, 2008, 06:24:51 pm »

Well, 1 million more for Billups then. Not a big deal. I'm just saying if your going to pay out the yin yang for a pg, might as well get the best available. Still, I wouldn't want portland to spend the money on either atm.

That said, Hinrich's deal, going down per year, is nice. Though comparing him to blake, I'd rather pay half the price. Someone will have a nice deal in hinrich, he's not a horible player at all and I'm not saying he is. He just isn't worth the price he gets paid too portland.

Thats just my opinion
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Jason Rubin
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« Reply #97 on: June 08, 2008, 06:26:27 pm »

Quote from: "nester66"
Oh, and just for sh$&'s and giggles I did this comparison. I took blakes numbers, divided them by the number of minutes played, and times that answer by the number of minutes played by hinrich. With this you can see how they compare if they play the same number of minutes through their careers so far:

             Hinrich:              Blake:
FG%:   41.4                      40.4
FT%:    81.6                      77.1
PPG:    14.4                      10.03
TR:       3.5                       2.9
APG:    6.4                        5.8
Blocks: .2                         .2
TO:       2.35                      2.03
Fouls:    3                          2.3
Steals:   1.3                       .9
3 %:      37.7                       38.1

Not worth 11 million to me. The results of them having equal playing time are barely even noticed.


Look, the point differential, assists differential and steals differential are huge.  Also, using career numbers for comparison is ridiculous.  Look at trends.  Hinrich has had one bad season.  And that bad season was better than any of Blake's seasons.  Hinrich tapped out at roughly 17-6.  There is absolutely no reason that he can't rebound from last season to get to that level again.

Statistics are important.  But you can twist statistic to make them fit your argument.  You weren't even able to do that successfully here.
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nester66
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« Reply #98 on: June 08, 2008, 06:31:37 pm »

I wasn't making a arguement, just a stats. You can draw your own conclusion. I wanted to know for myself if I would rather pay blake 4 million or hinrich 10 million.

Look, 6 million dollars is a hell of a lot to pay for 4 points, .6 assists and .4 steals. Last I looked we could get that from a second round pick for next to nothing.

I'm not saying hinrich is bad, or that blake is better, just that he's not worth 10 million.
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Drexler-Roy
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« Reply #99 on: June 08, 2008, 06:33:21 pm »

Greenwing like the stat Hinrichs shooting % is going up?Of course it started out at 38% went up slowly until it hit 44% then dropped back to his career average of 41%
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Greenwing wrote
Finally, I'm going to state this right now.  The Bulls will have a better record next season that the Portland Trailblazers.
Portland record 54-28
Chicago record 41-41
Jason Rubin
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« Reply #100 on: June 08, 2008, 06:37:23 pm »

Quote from: "Drexler-Roy"
Greenwing like the stat Hinrichs shooting % is going up?Of course it started out at 38% went up slowly until it hit 44% then dropped back to his career average of 41%


We've got another stat-twister, here!  Come and get it!
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Drexler-Roy
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« Reply #101 on: June 08, 2008, 06:44:40 pm »

Greenwing you are the one that has said repeatedly look at the directions Hinrichs stats are heading.Well his shooting % has generally been(except for one year)around 41% or below.His assists per game has had little variation(between 6.2-6.8)not bad mind you but certainly not great.All we are saying is that we do not see Hinrich as a major upgrade based on his stats.The stats you keep saying to look at.Well what is it?Can we base our opinion of him on his stats or not?If so why do we have to ignore this seasons stats?If not why not?
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Greenwing wrote
Finally, I'm going to state this right now.  The Bulls will have a better record next season that the Portland Trailblazers.
Portland record 54-28
Chicago record 41-41
Jason Rubin
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« Reply #102 on: June 08, 2008, 08:26:46 pm »

Quote from: "Drexler-Roy"
Greenwing you are the one that has said repeatedly look at the directions Hinrichs stats are heading.Well his shooting % has generally been(except for one year)around 41% or below.His assists per game has had little variation(between 6.2-6.8)not bad mind you but certainly not great.All we are saying is that we do not see Hinrich as a major upgrade based on his stats.The stats you keep saying to look at.Well what is it?Can we base our opinion of him on his stats or not?If so why do we have to ignore this seasons stats?If not why not?


Hinrich was roughly a 17-6 guy with great defense last season.  That's what I'm talking about.  You should ignore this season's stats because the entire Bulls team went into a slump.  There wasn't a single returning player who improved upon their numbers for last year.

You are simply not looking at the context of the situation.  That's where the faults in your analysis lie.
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nester66
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« Reply #103 on: June 08, 2008, 09:10:04 pm »

On the bright side, someone will take him, just hopefully not portland. He is a good player, just not a 10 million dollar player.
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Drexler-Roy
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« Reply #104 on: June 09, 2008, 02:37:47 am »

Greenwing you call me a stat twister and then cite stats while also telling me to ignore stats you find inconvenient.Perfectly logical
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Greenwing wrote
Finally, I'm going to state this right now.  The Bulls will have a better record next season that the Portland Trailblazers.
Portland record 54-28
Chicago record 41-41
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