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Author Topic: 2008 Standings Predictions Revisited  (Read 1856 times)
themadkiwi
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« on: August 12, 2009, 12:18:15 PM »
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Did we ever really go back to this thread and look at it?

I'll break mine down.

Note: I felt the need to chop a few wins off at the top of the conferences when originally doing this because I took the approach of guessing the number of wins for each conference and making it fit an actually statistically correct result in terms of total wins balance. I didn't figure on some teams sucking as heavily as they actually did.

Color codings are:

Green for correct position, win totals within two.
Orange for position change by within two, win totals out by between three and six.
Red for position change by three or more, win totals out by seven or more.

WEST

1. Lakers (Finished 1st)

Differential +6 (Predicted 59-23, Actual 65-17)

Okay, I undervalued them a little. Health wasn't really an issue in the end given their depth.


2. Rockets (Finished 5th)

Differential -4 (Predicted 57-25, Actual 53-29)

Health was somewhat of an issue. Young guys stepped up to take up the slack and helped to not make a mockery of this pick.


3. Jazz (Finished 8th)

Differential -7 (Predicted 55-27, Actual 48-34)

A fairly tragic fall from grace to be honest. These team suffered early injuries but never picked up momentum. Part of it belongs to the improvement of up and coming teams (Nuggets, Blazers), the rest on pitiful play away from home.


4. Hornets (Finished 7th)

Differential -3 (Predicted 52-30, Actual 49-33)

Didn't do badly on win total but expected them to finish higher. The brilliance of Chris Paul didn't help bring the rest of an average crew to the same unexpected heights as the previous year.


5. Suns (Finished 9th)

Differential -4 (Predicted 50-32, Actual 46-36)

Never flourished after abandoning the run and gun under Terry Porter. I feel pretty okay about the win total I predicted in the end, even if the position is well off.


6. Spurs (Finished 3rd)

Differential +5 (Predicted 49-33, Actual 54-28)

I admit, I was one of those who expected a decline in Tim Duncan and injuries to plague this aging team. I was pretty wrong here.


7. Mavericks (Finished 6th)

Differential +3 (Predicted 47-35, Actual 50-32)

I did okay here even if I had them slipping a little further than they did. Age again wasn't necessarily the factor I expected.


8. Blazers (Finished 4th)

Differential +8 (Predicted 46-36, Actual 54-28)

I didn't really dare to dream. As a Blazers fan I probably tempered my expectations so as not to get burned. I remember saying at one stage that I thought their absolute ceiling would be 52 wins and that would be predicated on Oden becoming a force. Well, he didn't and they still exclipsed my best case scenario. I undervalued the depth and talent of this team and the emergence of Roy as one of the truly best shooting guards in the league.


9. Nuggets (Finished 2nd)

Differential +10 (Predicted 44-38, Actual 54-28)

Well, I certainly didn't foresee the trade of Iverson for Billups, the effect that he'd have, the better team focus of Anthony nor the surprising impact of Chris Anderson's return to the NBA. I know I wasn't alone, but this turned into a major blunder.


10. Warriors (Finished 10th)

Differential -10 (Predicted 39-43, Actual 29-53)

I don't remember whether this went down before the Baron Davis move and the Monta Ellis incident or not, but I can rest on excuses. I got the position right which is nice, but the win count is a testament to just how lopsided the West was last season. Not looking pretty.


11. Clippers (Finished 14th)

Differential -19 (Predicted 38-44, Actual 19-63)

Ugly. To be off by 19 wins is staggeringly bad. The poster child for a collection of on paper talent that is absolute crap on the court. It will be interesting to see how people rate this team next season with Griffin in and Randolph out.


12. Kings (Finished 15th)

Differential -13 (Predicted 30-52, Actual 17-65)

Yeech, another shocking overestimate. I have no complaints here - outside of Kevin Martin this team really didn't offer a lot. No-one to blame but myself really.


13. Timberwolves (Finished 12th)

Differential -2 (Predicted 26-56, Actual 24-58)

Finally, a close win prediction. These guys seemed like a safe bet to be whipping boys. It's amazing to me just how hard it can be to come up with approximate win totals.


14. Thunder (Finished 13th)

Differential +1 (Predicted 22-60, Actual 23-59)

The closest so far. Then again, almost everyone was in agreement that this team would also struggle with so much young talent.


15. Grizzlies (Finished 11th)

Differential +4 (Predicted 20-62, Actual 24-58)

Wow. I can get within four wins of their actual total and still be out by four whole positions with the abysmal record of 24-58. That's how bad the bottom of the West sucked.


Eastern teams to follow. This is taking a LONG time to color code.  Cheesy
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themadkiwi
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« Reply #1 on: August 12, 2009, 12:18:40 PM »
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Color codings are:

Green for correct position, win totals within two.
Orange for position change by within two, win totals out by between three and six.
Red for position change by three or more, win totals out by seven or more.

EAST

1. Celtics (Finished 2nd)

Differential +2 (Predicted 60-22, Actual 62-20)

Pretty close in the end, despite Kevin Garnett missing the last half of the season. One can only assume that I wouldn't have been quite as close had he been able to play.

2. Pistons (Finished 8th)

Differential -17 (Predicted 56-26, Actual 39-43)

Ouch. Obviously the Billups-Iverson trade had an effect. But still, this team had talented players and took a major nose dive. A rebuild is certainly in order.

3. Orlando (Finished 3rd)

Differential +9 (Predicted 50-32, Actual 59-23)

I thought Orlando would be decent, but in terms of record I didn't have quite the spread at the bottom of the East to give the teams at the top better win totals (I blame Toronto and Washington). They did what I expected by winning the South East.

4. Cavaliers (Finished 1st)

Differential +18 (Predicted 48-34, Actual 66-16)

Belief in the Pistons staying focused and the inability to see Cleveland get more out of its role-players lead me astray. A pretty bad estimate here of wins I must admit.

5. 76ers (Finished 6th)

Differential -4 (Predicted 45-37, Actual 41-41)

I didn't do badly here although the 76ers weren't really anywhere near as good as I thought they could be. The injury to Elton Brand of course didn't help at all.

6. Raptors (Finished 13th)

Differential -11 (Predicted 44-38, Actual 33-49)

Another tragic tale of a team going south. Blame the status of Bosh's future, blame a lack of peripheral talent... blame whatever you like. I didn't see them being this awful.

7. Wizards (Finished 15th)

Differential -23 (Predicted 42-40, Actual 19-63)

Yes, -23 against my prediction. This team was f*cking awful. No Arenas but still... couldn't Butler and Jamison prevent this kind of unmitigated disaster? Apparently not.

8. Hawks (Finished 4th)

Differential (Predicted 40-42, Actual 47-35)

I admit, I don't like the way this team is constructed or lead so I tend to undervalue them. I still don't think 8th was an awful pick assuming a motivated Detroit and Toronto and a healthy Washington. Assumption of course is the mother of all f*ckups.

9. Bulls (Finished 7th)

Differential +4 (Predicted 37-45, Actual 41-41)

Bettered my expectations a little by making the playoffs and winning a few more regular season games. The acquisitions of Brad Miller and John Salmons obviously helped.

10. Heat (Finished 5th)

Differential +7 (Predicted 36-46, Actual 43-39)

Outside of Wade, I didn't see them being good enough. Then again, I had better aspirations for some teams I had ahead of them. Lesson learned - don't discount the star power of Dwyane Wade and LeBron James.

11. Pacers (Finished 9th)

Differential +2 (Predicted 34-48, Actual 36-46)

Fairly close here with the win total. I'm happy enough.

12. Bobcats (Finished 10th)

Differential +3 (Predicted 32-50, Actual 35-47)

Again, not so bad. I had a few of these teams clustered about right. As far as the position goes, I just never thought that a 35-47 record would get you only four wins out of the playoffs.

13. Bucks (Finished 11th)

Differential +6 (Predicted 28-54, Actual 34-48)

See above. Interestingly enough, I made a lot of the non-playoffs East teams worse than they were and the complete opposite in the West.

14. Knicks (Finished 14th)

Differential +5 (Predicted 27-55, Actual 32-50)

No gloating here. Pretty much everyone predicted this particular trainwreck.

15. Nets (Finished 12th)

Differential +17 (Predicted 17-65, Actual 34-48)

A big surprise for me and a pleasant one. Devin Harris obviously was one of the stories of the season and helped propel this team to unexpected heights. With the loss of Vince Carter, this same prediction next year could be better met by reality...
« Last Edit: August 13, 2009, 10:06:11 AM by themadkiwi » Logged
themadkiwi
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« Reply #2 on: August 12, 2009, 12:32:21 PM »
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Stay tuned for Rocktober. I'll turn a prediction thread into a season long waiting game where you'll score based on final standings, division titles and win totals. Any frequent contributors who want to participate can sign up here now if you're interested.  Wink
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chelo
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« Reply #3 on: August 12, 2009, 12:46:51 PM »
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Stay tuned for Rocktober. I'll turn a prediction thread into a season long waiting game where you'll score based on final standings, division titles and win totals. Any frequent contributors who want to participate can sign up here now if you're interested.  Wink

Of course i am interested Mr.Kiwi, please sign me up.
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Herbal_Tea*
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love that feel

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« Reply #4 on: August 12, 2009, 01:37:09 PM »
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sign me up tooo
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themadkiwi
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« Reply #5 on: August 13, 2009, 10:17:47 AM »
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Okay, I've now done the East.

Looking over my coloring and the win differentials I have to say it's pretty piss poor. It's a damn hard exercise to come up with positions and win totals, even waiting until October as I did with those. I'll try again this year and see whether I can do better.

Here's a scoring system I thought I'd come up with:

3 points for every green line.
1 points for every orange line.
No points for any red line.
5 bonus points for each correctly picked conference winner.
5 bonus points for each correctly picked conference bottom-feeder.
2 bonus points for every correctly picked division winner.

So, I score 66 points in all.

Let's play the game come October!
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MoGrady
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Air Canada Carter

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« Reply #6 on: August 13, 2009, 01:32:49 PM »
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i'm in
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Thank you Turbozone, BBYao for the sigs.
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« Reply #7 on: August 13, 2009, 01:57:33 PM »
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im game as well
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themadkiwi
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« Reply #8 on: September 30, 2009, 05:47:02 PM »
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Should I set this up as a predictions game? Anyone still interested?

If so, I'll get it set up in the Fantasy/GM forum.
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chelo
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« Reply #9 on: September 30, 2009, 05:52:36 PM »
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Should I set this up as a predictions game? Anyone still interested?

If so, I'll get it set up in the Fantasy/GM forum.


You mean for the 09/10 season?
Mild made a thread http://forums.hoopshype.com/forums/index.php?topic=47833.0 maybe we can use it?
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Ralph
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PIZZA ROLLSSSSSS

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« Reply #10 on: September 30, 2009, 05:53:17 PM »
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im in kiwi (if there's any room)
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Super_Nintendo_Chalmers
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« Reply #11 on: September 30, 2009, 07:03:28 PM »
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I'm in this like rockstars are in Pam anderson.
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No Pressure
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Soul-

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« Reply #12 on: September 30, 2009, 07:08:13 PM »
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There is no such thing as a cool game without No Pressure.
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josh626
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« Reply #13 on: September 30, 2009, 09:35:19 PM »
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Sounds awesome, im definitely in. If there is room.
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Good luck in La pussies.

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LexDaMan
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« Reply #14 on: September 30, 2009, 10:11:01 PM »
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im down
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