Let me try a tiered analysis here. This is what I think of the participants.
Elite teams/Medal Contenders: Spain, Turkey, Lithuania, Serbia, France, Greece, Slovenia, Russia.
lithuania and spain are the top favorites imo. turkey has a nice team but they're gonna have a very hard time without the help of the refs. france and slovenia have good teams but they're not winners, they're always missing something. greece and russia don't scare me a bit. and serbia could be dangerous but who's going to coach them?
Then I think there are also two wild-cards: Montenegro and Italy. Montenegro has Pekovic (a monster) and if they don't call up the old guys again (Drobnjak, Jeretin) they got some youth w/ Dasic, Mirotic, Sehovic brothers. Also Omar Cook.
yeah, montenegro with pekovic could surprise some teams. but what is with this PG ivan or igor koljevic? he's montenegrin, right? i think he played for bilbao a couple of years ago. he somehow reminded me of drazen, obviously a poor version of him.
Of course some of the teams might be better or worse depending on who shows up, but ultimately I don't think anyone out of the top tear has a shot at a medal.
i'd add montenegro to that list