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Author Topic: ATL-DET (Draft Pick Swap)  (Read 2329 times)
phiboy207
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« on: May 26, 2007, 02:58:16 pm »

Assumptions: ATL drafts Conley @ 3 and Noah is not on the board @ 11.

Trade: DET gives #15 and #27 for ATL's #11.

Why? If Noah is gone, then the value @ #11 would prolly be a SF faller (Green, Wright, Brewer) or Law, a scoring combo guard.  Any of those player would definitely be an upgrade over the current bench players for Detroit @ those positions and none would be there when Detroit picked @ 15.
Atlanta would, in effect, get an extra pick.  Since PG has been addressed and there is not any minutes for any other position than C, the Hawk's are already looking at the next tier of big men (Jason Smith, Sean Williams, Splitter, Hardin).  The chances that any have been taken by 15 is low, so ATL can spend a pick on their favorite of this group, and the one who falls all the way to 27.

For the sake of names, I'll say Detroit trades up for Julian Wright, and Atlanta ends up with Tiago Splitter and Devon Hardin.
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CraftyVet
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« Reply #1 on: May 26, 2007, 02:59:44 pm »

I think that is an interesting possibility that Atlanta would really consider.
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bayball
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« Reply #2 on: May 26, 2007, 03:11:51 pm »

nice proposition
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Pervis Ellison
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« Reply #3 on: May 26, 2007, 03:31:02 pm »

yeah, nice propsition
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cselby
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« Reply #4 on: May 26, 2007, 06:56:59 pm »

Quote from: "kingdumcome"
yeah, nice propsition


LOL you kill me.
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Happiness1982
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« Reply #5 on: May 27, 2007, 04:11:02 am »

Quote from: "cselby"
Quote from: "kingdumcome"
yeah, nice propsition


LOL you kill me.


lol he's nuts.

On the trade, its cool but imo Atlanta may look to trade up themselves from the 11 to try and get someone inside (JianLian possibly).
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phiboy207
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« Reply #6 on: May 27, 2007, 12:19:50 pm »

Quote from: "Happiness1982"
Quote from: "cselby"
Quote from: "kingdumcome"
yeah, nice propsition


LOL you kill me.


lol he's nuts.

On the trade, its cool but imo Atlanta may look to trade up themselves from the 11 to try and get someone inside (JianLian possibly).

Not sure if there would be a fit for that.  I couldn't see BK parting with any of his wings for anything less than a lottery pick-type compensation, and we shouldn't take anything other than a PG / C without trading, well, two of those wings.
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knowledge
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« Reply #7 on: May 27, 2007, 03:23:21 pm »

No way Atlanta wastes the number 3 on Conley.  They are better served to take Jianlian and take a PG at number 11.  Acie Law or Javaris Crittenden (Georgia Tech) would BOTH be good options at number 11 and should both be on the board.  Crittenden has far more upside than Conley.

Another item I disagree with in this thread is that Brewer (Charlotte?), J. Wright (Minnesota?), and Green (Chicago?) will be there at 11.  I think Noah may be there but I don't know what Atlanta would want with him.  I actually have him going no. 10 to Sac.  

Detroit's got to like where they are in the draft.  They should be able to get a big time college scorer and a big man with their two picks.  I see them targeting SG Rodney Stuckey, PF Jason Smith, or C Sean Williams at 15.  And at 27 they should be looking at SG Almond, C Hardin, or C Gasol.  However, if Crittenden or Law are there at 15 they might take a look but I see them either resigning Billups or going to a Vet PG thru trade or Free Agency.
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JMitch10
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« Reply #8 on: May 27, 2007, 03:26:36 pm »

Quote from: "knowledge"
No way Atlanta wastes the number 3 on Conley.  


I think you worded that terribly. If they took Conley at 3 that would not be a waste, he is the best point guard in the draft and could be great.
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phiboy207
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« Reply #9 on: May 27, 2007, 05:56:07 pm »

Quote from: "knowledge"
No way Atlanta wastes the number 3 on Conley.  They are better served to take Jianlian and take a PG at number 11.  Acie Law or Javaris Crittenden (Georgia Tech) would BOTH be good options at number 11 and should both be on the board.  Crittenden has far more upside than Conley.

Another item I disagree with in this thread is that Brewer (Charlotte?), J. Wright (Minnesota?), and Green (Chicago?) will be there at 11.  I think Noah may be there but I don't know what Atlanta would want with him.  I actually have him going no. 10 to Sac.  

Detroit's got to like where they are in the draft.  They should be able to get a big time college scorer and a big man with their two picks.  I see them targeting SG Rodney Stuckey, PF Jason Smith, or C Sean Williams at 15.  And at 27 they should be looking at SG Almond, C Hardin, or C Gasol.  However, if Crittenden or Law are there at 15 they might take a look but I see them either resigning Billups or going to a Vet PG thru trade or Free Agency.
Huh Not sure if you've done your homework on this one.
1) Yi would be a waste in Atlanta.  First, Yi is NOT a C.  He does not have the bulk.  He is a PF through and through.  So, where would he get minutes in Atlanta?  We have 4 lottery picks vying for time @ the SG, SF, and PF positions...and Josh Smith.  5 players who need 30+ minutes/game @ 3 positions where there's only 144.  It's not like Yi brings anything to the game that all 5 of the others don't.  (As far as Noah, he brings shot-blocking, rebounding, energy, and leadership - attributes lacking with the current Hawk's roster.)  Conley is the best of the field at the other positions.  He is the only player that we could actually give minutes to @ #3 overall.
2) Crittenton may have a higher upside than Conley, but a MUCH higher bust rate too.  He makes too many stupid mistakes and costly turnovers which Conley keeps to a minimum.  I seen a lot of him here in Atlanta, and he just seems to be too error prone to expect anything out of him for a couple of years.  He would have really benefitted from another year or two in college.
3) I did not say that all 3 SFs would fall, just that one of them would if Noah was off the board.  Size trumps in the NBA - especially on draft day.  Hence, I'm guessing the faller to 11 would be one of the SFs over a PF or Hawes.  If it was a PF though, it'd prolly be Yi.
4) Why would Detroit want a college scorer (is there any higher bust attribute than a college scorer) and a late round big over anyone they could have in the late lottery?  That's just asinine.  Of course Dumars would want to get decent young talent on his team than waste a couple of guaranteed contracts on players who wouldn't even make his team's rotation.  He's trying to win championships - he needs players, not bench warmers.  This year's draft has a distinct talent cutoff around pick 12 or 13.  Therefore, Dumars could get a player who can be an immediate contributor to a championship team without messing with the nucleus of his team.

You'd think someone who tries so hard to slam would be much more, well, knowledgeable.
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knowledge
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« Reply #10 on: May 27, 2007, 08:02:18 pm »

It certainly sounds like you know your Atlanta Hawks.  Thus, you should know that they are adament about taking the best player available and Conley barely cracks the top 5 (of who will be left) by most counts and frankly I don't know why.  He's 6 foot with little range, average FTs, and put up 11 points per game in a very week Big 10.  Can we agree that he is in this draft solely b/c of Greg Oden?  I would LOVE to see him go back to Ohio State and watch what kind of season they would have...

I agree the 7 foot 246 pound 19y/o Yi's best position would not be Center right now, but he's bigger than Lorenzen Wright, and a rabbit to Pachulia's turtle.  I believe your reason was he "doesn't have enough bulk".  He's 2 inches taller and 6 pounds heavier than Zo was at 22.  He averaged nearly 12 boards a game and IMHO he's a better option at the 5 for ATL after a couple months in the league.

I agree with all your points on Crittenden.  It's not so much that I see him as an All-Star, but I certainly see him having more of a positive impact than Mike Conley.  The 6'5" Crittenden had 5.8 apg to the 6'0" Conley's 6.1.  Crittenden didn't have the most dominant big man in the country either.  He faced far better conference competition and they're the same age.  He scored more and shot significantly better FT % and 3FG%.

Finally, as for Detroit, without Webber and Billups they still look 9 deep next year (Hamilton, Wallace, Prince, Mohammed, Maxiell, Delfino, Hunter, Murray, and McDyess) but the following year they only have 6 total players signed.  So they might actually want 2 young developing players, over 1 better player.  If they trade to 11 they would probably take Law or Crittenden who they hope might be there at 15.
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phiboy207
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« Reply #11 on: May 27, 2007, 10:46:21 pm »

I'll have to stick with disagreeing about Yi.  I have not seen any reports stating that Yi has a lot of growth potential, in fact just the opposite - I seen a couple of reports questioning his true age.  Morning, on the other hand, did find the weight room and got significantly bigger than his years as a PF @ Georgetown (Mutombo became the C at some point during Mourning's time there).  As far as stats, Yi is getting 12 rebs/game against in a Chinese league with only a handful of bona fide NBA prospects.  Yi has not played well on a big stage either.  He did not play as well as expected in the last big international stage - a PG they had was the talk of the tourney.  In the championship game for his Chinese League, he disappeared as well.  It seems that once the competition gets better, Yi doesn't step up to the challenge.

I do, however, agree that Yi is a better option than anything we have, but the Hawks could drive down to the local AAU team and get a better C (considering that team had Dwight Howard and Randolph Morriss a couple of years ago that may not be all that much of an insult, but you get the idea).  But we cannot fall into the same trap that many teams fall into who have lottery picks year after year, we have to build a team - not just collect players.  In this case, we don't need what Yi brings - good athlete, smooth perimeter game - that's what all the wings we have are for.  At the least, we need a defensive minded C who can make teams think twice about entering the lane and can pull down 10+ boards/game against NBA competition, and BK knows that as evidenced by drafting Sheldon Williams last year.  I'm not sure that Yi brings that.

For the Crittenton / Conley comparison, I'm still not sure that I follow your rationale.  Generally, playing with a good big decreases your assists, not increases them.  You should only get an assist when we feed someone in a position where the continuance of his motion end up in a basket.  Hence, feeding a big in the post does not generally end up in an assist, but hitting a cutter or a someone for a spot up 3 does.  Therefore, Crittenton assists should be higher than it should be because of the makeup of his team and Conley's lower.  But Conley's Assist/TO is still about twice as good as Crittenton's (2.8 to 1.5).  If anything, I think it's an admirable attribute to put winning over stats by following Oden to Ohio State.  He wants to win - regardless of the personal acclaim.

The main asset (after winning games) to a PG though is his ability to play fast, but under control.  Conley has shown an ability to do that; Crittenton has not.  Conley's FT % and 3PT % are concerning, but he has a nice stroke and his FG % is very good, so both should improve.  As far as the level of competition, I'd agree if it was just the Big-10 vs. ACC, but Conley was clearly the leader of the team that made the Championship game.  When Oden went down due to fouls or just flat ineffectiveness, Conley stepped up and got the win for the team - to varying degrees - in every OSU win of the NCAAs.  I wonder if the same would have happened if Conley was down and not Oden.  Crittenton ably helped his team bow out in the first two games of both the ACC tourney and the NCAAs.  As far as wanting to watch both for another year in college, well, I would like it as a matter of course - just to see the college game get better, and, in turn, the NBA game.  Now, I do like a 6'5" true PG as much as any other B-Ball nut, but Conley just seems like a true player, while Crittenton just looks like an interesting prospect.

Back to the trade and Detroit's roster (I guess I have to mention it so this post isn't completely off the board topic...sorry Happiness, but it's just getting good), but where would you find minutes to develop a young player with a 9 man rotation?  He has to be good enough to break into it.  I just don't see a Rodney Stuckey beating out a Lindsey Hunter for minutes.  Ditto any of the other names mentioned as draft pick possibilities.  But I could see a Law or any of the SFs getting some minutes though.  Also, when the roster drops from 9 signed to 6, they'll need some talent to pass the torch to.  At 15, you are looking at complimentary players at best.  In this year's draft, the talent @ 11 could yield a 2nd or 3rd option on O, and considering the disappearing act that Detroit's O goes through from time to time, the ability to score against NBA competition is needed.  

Finally, as far as both Law and Crittenton being available @ 15, I doubt that the Clipper's would pass on a PG if both were available.  I'm also not sure that Philly and Charlotte pass on Law as a combo guard and perhaps the best 3-point shooter in the draft.  Neither may be available.

In summation, staying @ 15 may leave Detroit with 2nd tier talent who won't contribute for 2 years - if at all.  While jumping up to 11 could yield an immediate help on O and a possible building block in two years.  So which is better two players you hope could be nice compliments to a rebuilding team in another year, or 1 player who could help win a championship now, then help you reload later?
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