Sweet Home Chicago
When the Chicago Bulls signed center Ben Wallace away from Detroit to the tune of a four-year, $60 million contract last week, basketball's statistical punditry almost unanimously panned the move.The major complaint was that the pact will pay Wallace a whopping sum for his age 35 and 36 seasons.
That couldn't have taxed the brain cells too much; any long-term NBA contract that takes its recipient past the age of 35 is going to represent an inefficient expenditure.
What this carping doesn't take into account is the short term. How much better will the Bulls be for the first two years of the deal? Is the signing of Wallace, when combined with the Bulls' other offseason moves, enough to propel them through the Eastern Conference playoffs and into the NBA Finals?
The second issue that commentators took with the Chicago's signing of the reigning Defensive Player of the Year is that the Bulls were already a top defensive team, ranking sixth last season in Defensive Efficiency (points per 100 possessions).Their weakness was on offense, where the team ranked 22nd in Offensive Efficiency.
Wallace is an notoriously bad offensive player (he has no post up moves, nor a mid-range jump shot, and he's the only key player in the league that is worse than Shaquille O'Neal at shooting free throws). It seems odd to spend money — lots of money — to fortify a team strength, but that's the inefficiency of the free-agent market. The Bulls had money to spend, but their room under the salary cap is going to vanish soon due to upcoming contract renewals of guard Kirk Hinrich and forward Andres Nocioni. So they spent on the best fit available.
Wallace's signing should make the Bulls a better defensive team, and that difference, perhaps as much as four points per 100 possessions, will make them an elite defensive team. Also, the Bulls' offensive style may minimize Wallace's offensive weaknesses.
Unlike most stellar defensive teams, Chicago plays an up-tempo style. They ranked fifth in Pace Factor (possessions per game) last season at 92.9.Wallace's last two Pistons teams ranked 29th and 30th in Pace Factor, meaning that Wallace almost always had to find his points in a half-court offensive set that highlighted his inabilities.With the Bulls, he will have numerous chances to finish on fast breaks or score on put backs from shots before a defense gets set.Improvement on the defensive end may take the Bulls from a .500 team to a 50-win team, but it will be improvement on offense that will transform them into Finals contenders. And that's where things get murky in Chicago's other offseason moves, because most are also designed to improve the defense.
Drafting 6-foot-9-inch forward Tyrus Thomas out of LSU and 6-foot-5-inch Swiss guard Thabo Sefolosha were both good moves that will likely pay dividends at both ends of the floor down the road. But right now the two rookies are pegged to be solid defenders with emerging offensive games. The signing of Wallace made center Tyson Chandler expendable, and he was duly sent to New Orleans in exchange for veteran power forward P.J. Brown and swingman J.R. Smith. Pending a physical, Smith, who probably didn't even have time to consult a Chicago real estate broker, will be sent to Denver as part of a three-way deal that will enable the Bulls to sign Dallas defensive ace Adrian Griffin.
Chicago sports fans love their defense, but this is verging on the absurd. The Bulls' moves look like an attempt to pitch shutouts in the NBA. The team's prospects for improvement offensively will have to come from existing talent, but it really isn't a bad gamble. Despite trading away top scorer Eddy Curry just before the season began, the Bulls actually improved offensively from 2004–05 to 2005–06, going from 26th in Offensive Efficiency two seasons ago to 22nd last year.The bulk of the improvement came from Nocioni, who averaged 13 points per game this season, and forward Luol Deng, who tossed in 14.3. Both players are entering their third year and Deng is only 21,so continued improvement is reasonable to expect. In addition, all three Bulls guards — Hinrich, Ben Gordon, and Chris Duhon — improved their shooting percentages last year and all are still on the upward arcs of their careers.
The big wild card in the Bulls' forecast is former Knick Michael Sweetney. Sweets has an excellent offensive game, but his poor conditioning and weak defensive game put in him coach Scott Skiles's doghouse. This is his contract year, so if he finds his game (as players in his position often do) then the Bulls' offense could take a big jump forward, though that would still make it only middle of the pack. Still, a middle-of-thepack offense paired with a top-three defense should move the Bulls into the Eastern Conference elite and have them playing deep into May.
I suspect that the Bulls made their moves with an eye toward 2007–08.Wallace still figures to be a force then and players like Hinrich, Gordon, Deng, and Nocioni will be entering their primes. Add a maturing Thomas and Sefolosha to the mix and you could have a championship contender. Or you could have enough young players to deal to Minnesota for Kevin Garnett. Either way, it's a good deal for Bulls fans.
Chicago's off-season moves go against one important tenet of team building: get younger when possible. The Bulls have had eight years of a youth movement, and Team President John Paxson — as well as many hoops fans in the Windy City — wearied of waiting for players like Curry, Chandler, and Jamal Crawford to mature. While he has assembled a boatload of young talent, Paxson is now aiming at a maturity movement by bringing in the 32-year-old Wallace, 37-year-old Brown, and 32-year-old Griffin. The moves narrow the Bulls' window of contention, but should improve their chances at glory.
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