Mild Sauce
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« Reply #21 on: October 27, 2012, 03:07:21 am » |
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Bulls
The new bench started finding its way during the preseason. It will still take time for them to gel, but luckily for the Bulls, they have a very easy start to the season. This will give them the extra time. Belinelli still needs to find his jumper, but he did look much better this past game.
The Asik thing has been overblown. He was a good defender, I won't deny that, but the Bulls didn't play him a whole lot, and they still have Noah and Gibson. Asik was also an offensive liability due to his terrible free throw shooting and inability to catch the ball (also, his habit of going down after a rebound before going back up probably cost him close to 60 points last season), which on the surface doesn't seem like much, but that's not too far from a third of last seasons points (205). I'm not saying that he won't figure things out, but from what he was to the Bulls last season there isn't a huge dropoff from him to Nazr. I do wish the Bulls would carry one more big man who can at least play the 5 though, they got lucky with Boozer and Noah's health last season, but that's not likely to happen again based on history, and then they're left with 3 (not to forget that Gibson has had his share of health problems). They can survive with 3, but if 2 of those guys go down they're going to have to scramble for a big man, and I'd rather they snag one now rather than having slimmer pickings later in the season.
As for Brewer, he was a good defender, but on offense he wasn't far from being a liability. He had a strong start last season, but his shot stopped falling. I liked him and really hope for the best for him, but Jimmy Butler will be filling his role. Butler is ready as far as defense goes, he has potential to be one of the better defenders in the league. He's still a bit too eager right now, but even last season he shined at times, like when he shut down Carmelo late during a close game against the Knicks last season. On offense he still is way off from where he can be, but he's not much, if any sort of dropoff from Brewer. On top of him, there's still Belinelli and Hamilton who can play the 2. Butler will also play some 3 like Brewer did last season.
I totally agree about Taj's defense. Having someone as disruptive him in the second unit will help to make sure their defense is strong.
The biggest problem for the Bulls will be scoring with Rose gone. Rose or not, 3 point shooting will be a huge weakness for the team this year. Belinelli, Deng, Hamilton, and Radmanovic are the main guys the Bulls will look to for that. Deng's reasonable, but nothing special from distance, Belinelli has a good track record as a career 42% 3 point shooter, although he's been rusty in the preseason. Hamilton is a solid, but not great 3 point shooter, and Radmanovic as a whole doesn't seem to be far from being totally useless, despite his 38% career 3 point shooting mark (average out his last 2 seasons and it's actually a touch above that). Pretty much, don't expect a lot of 3 pointers shot, and don't expect a lot to be made.
I'm gonna go with 45-37 this season, assuming Rose sits the season out. If he does come back, then it will depend on when he comes back, but the difference won't likely be more than 5 games when you remember that he's going to have rust to shake off and adjustments to make to his game.
Bucks
Milwaukee's an interesting case. Brandon Jennings being a large reason for that. When he's on he can be great, but he's very inconsistent. The kid can play, there's no doubt about that, but he just doesn't seem to have it all upstairs yet.
Ilyasova is a player that I really like on that team. He really started to show what he could do late last season, and if he can keep it up he can be a serious difference maker for the Bucks. However, that's not a given by any means, so we'll have to wait and see on him.
That backcourt should be able to really put points on the board. Ellis and Jennings will be able to run circles around opposing defenses. However, on the other end of the floor both of them leave a lot to be desired both in skill and in size. Bigger guards should be able to have a field day with them. However, both bring enough offense that they should be able to balance that out at very least.
As for the bigs, Dalembert is a very good defensive big who doesn't bring a whole lot on the offensive end, but he's far from a liability there as well. I think he can do a great job as a mentor to guys like Sanders as well. Gooden is a good enough offensive power forward who leaves a ton to be desired on the defensive end. Gooden can get very shot happy and he makes a lot of silly mistakes, so as a whole I'm really not too high on him.
The bench should be strong. Mbah a Moute is a good defender who can bring a little to the offensive game, and Dunleavy (assuming Ilyasova starts) should bring a good offensive punch to the bench. The rest of the guys don't bring anything that overly impresses me, but I don't expect them to be complete pushovers either.
Scott Skiles will always bring teams that work hard, that's for sure. I still don't see the Bucks as a team that is there yet, but I can see them being at least a team that nobody will take for granted. They can finish with around 43 wins, but I see them winding up closer to 39-43.
Jazz
It's really tough to see where this team will finish. They're full of players that are good, but nothing special. If Derrick Favors can make strides this season, then they'll possibly be able to contend for a playoff spot. However, their best two players are Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap. Those are the two exceptions to what I said above. Both of them are very good scorers and rebounders. However, neither of them brings much on defense, and that will hurt. That's also where improvements from Favors and Kanter can come in. Still, without much beyond the bigs, I just really don't see the Jazz as being a playoff team yet. I'm seeing them around 34-48.
Grizzlies
The Grizzlies can probably keep up what they've been bringing the last few years. Randolph will be there for the whole season (probably), which should be a big boost. Marc Gasol is a completely proven center by this point as well. Conley is a solid point guard, if not in that good range (although, with the influx of point guards in the league, relativity isn't on his side too much), and Tony Allen is one of the best defensive guards in the league, even if his offense doesn't come close to matching it. One of the best things for this time will be Gay. He's been playing very well lately, but I can still see him improving the nuances of his game.
Speights is one of those guys I look at and wonder why he isn't much better. The tools are all there, but when you watch him play there are a lot of poor decisions. It's almost like a younger Randolph, but without the numbers. In the case of Speights there's a lot more that he holds himself back with. If he can get his head on right he can be a great piece off the bench, but for now I can still see him as being a good piece, but nothing special. The rest of the supporting cast leaves a lot to be desired. It's not terrible, but it's nothing very good either. I'm guessing they finish with 46 or 47 wins, good enough to make it in as one of the bottom 3 seeds in the west.
Pistons
I'm not ready to push the Pistons up yet. Monroe is a very good up and comer. However, I don't see his ceiling as being much higher than where he is now (not meant as an insult, he's very good). You know you can get around 16 points and 10 boards from him as well as some very good passing for a big man. That's very good, but it won't make a team. Knight may be able to improve, but he's a scoring point guard who reminds me more of Devin Harris than any other scoring point guard. Again, not bad, but not going to make a team either. Stuckey is what he is, Prince is solid, but getting older, and really just that, solid. I also think Jerebko is what he is, good defender who adds some to offense. His improvement last season was marginal at best. If he improves by more, then you can add a few wins to the Pistons, but if not he won't change anything for the team (kind of goes without saying).
The bench just doesn't impress me at all. I expect big things out of Drummond, but not this season. He's going to need a year or two to develop. Will Bynum can bring a scoring punch, but outside of that he doesn't really offer anything. Maxiell is a solid veteran, which is good, probably the player I expect the most impact off with the bench. Maggette is just...yeah. He can fill up the stats sheet, but he doesn't ever actually help the teams that he's on. He's one of those guys who just seems to bring losing with them everywhere he goes.
I don't think Detroit's ready for that next step yet. However, with a good draft pick next summer and the development of Drummond, which can bring a formidable duo down low with Monroe, the future isn't bleak. I see more of the same with them next season. I'll give them one more win and go with 30-52.
Raptors
I've been pulling for the Raptors to break out for a while, but I just don't think they're there yet. Bargnani is a big who can stretch the floor, but he comes off as streaky, and he has way too many deficiencies in his game. We've seen what we're going to see with him, and I don't expect anything more. I still am hopeful for DeRozan. He's got all of the physical skills, but he needs to learn how to be a consistent jump shooter. If he can do that he can be one of the top offensive players in the league. However, I'm starting to lose hope with him. Lowry and Fields should make a good backcourt. Fields is more of the glue guy while Lowry is the guy who can run the offense. I don't know what to expect from Jonas. I don't expect a huge rookie season, but a useful one still, his best use probably being that he'll move Bargnani to the 4, where he really belongs.
I like the Raptors bench. Calderon is the perfect backup point guard outside of his lack of defense. I'm a fan of Ed Davis, don't see him ever being a star, but I think he can be a good bench forward. John Lucas III showed last season that he can be one of those microwave scorer guys if the rest of the offense is struggling, but at the same time he's very streaky and often a little too fearless, as he can shoot the ball too much when he's not on. I like, but am not too big on Amir Johnson. He's solid, but nothing more. Kleiza is a guy who can bring strong offense, but he might as well be a folding chair on defense. Hey, at least he can defend Yi Jianlian if that ever becomes an issue. Aaron Gray has the best haircut in the NBA.
I see the Raptors taking a step up this season. Not a huge step, I still don't see them in the playoffs yet, but if some things go better than expected, it's not out of the question. I'll go 37-45 for them.
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