Just like last season, here I am the day after the Finals, still basking in the celebration of a 5th championship. Let's look at what the Spurs have on their plates heading into the offseason.
The Old GuysThe decisions of Manu, Tim and Coach Pop will dictate every other move this upcoming offseason. I will tackle them in the order of which decision is less in doubt to more in doubt.
First Manu, who was quoted during this playoffs saying "I'll definitely be back next season." I believe that is as concrete as it gets, so he will be back, we can move on. He 100% will be back.
Next is Pop, who at 65 years young is closing in on his swan song. In a interview just this past Saturday said he would like to continue coaching beyond this season. While not definitively saying he would be back, he said he would like to be back and I'm sure everyone involved with the Spurs will want him back. It should be said that Pop has always said that he would follow a certain franchise player out the door when he decided to retire, which leads us to Mr. Duncan.
I remember a few seasons ago, I think during media day one year at the beginning of training camp, when asked about how many years he had left Duncan said "I'm going to continue to play until the wheels come off." Additionally, in many of his interviews lately he has said how he feels he played a meaningful role in the team's success. For the last 15+ seasons, I have read countless times how competitive Duncan is, how much he loves to play the game, and how much he enjoys playing for this coach with these groups of teammates, that I find it very hard to believe he would just walk away now. He is still playing at a very high level (he was 1st All-NBA last season for crying out loud), the team is set up to come back, and the other 3 prominant figures (Tony, Manu, Pop) are all wanting him to come back. I think it is a near lock he comes back, but because its not a certainty, I would say he and Pop are 99% likely to come back.
Free AgentsThe Spurs currently have eight players under contract next season. Parker, Splitter, Ginobili, Green, Belinelli, Leonard, Joseph, and Aryes. If we assume Duncan picks up his option, that would be nine players under contract at around $53 million in committed salary. That would leave the Spurs with 4-6 spots to fill.
The most important roster move this offseason is probably resigning Diaw. By all accounts Diaw loves playing here, loves playing with Parker, probably loves getting to take some of the regular season to get in shape and I think the Spurs would love to have him return. He might be due a bit of a pay raise, but something like a 2yr/$10-12 million with the second year a player option.
Next in line will be Mills. It is going to be very tough to bring him back. I think there would be mutual interest from both sides to work out a contract, but I find it hard to believe no team will offer him a significant increase in both money and playing time. There are so many teams with cap space and if one of them said he would play 30 minutes a game I don't know how, at nearly 26 years old, you turn that down to continue playing less than 20 minutes and take less money. I would love it if he did, but I think he is probably gone.
Fellow Aussie Baynes would be next in line, and he will be a restricted free agent. I'm guessing they will extend a qualifying offer. Why wouldn't they, only about a million. I think they will resign him but I have no idea what he is worth. I think he is a good player, but he has seen such little court time and he is going to be 28 years old by the time next season tips off. My best guess is a 2 or 3 year deal worth $$4-$6 million, similiar to the Belinelli contract.
The remaining free agents are Bonner, Austin Daye and Damion James. I think Bonner is a lock to return on a vet minimum deal. Dayne has a team option, that I think the Spurs will exercise because they see him as a young stretch 4 potentially. James seems destined for the Austin Toros next year.
If those play out this way, that would give the Spurs 4 more players signed in a $9-$11 million range. That would eat up all their cap room, which I think they will work the deals out to take them over the projected $63 million dollar cap. That would then unlock the full-midlevel exception for them if they choose to use it.
Draft and Draft RightsI don't even want to talk about it too much because I like everyone else really never has a clue what the Spurs are doing on draft night. I have routinely not liked most of their draft picks as they happened recently, (thinking specifically how much I didn't like the Hill, James Anderson, and Joseph picks when they happened) but they seem to do very well. To me, picking last in the first round screams of a draft and stash pick for the Spurs, especially when you figure no rookie available 30th would crack this rotation.
Which leads me to draft rights. The Spurs own the rights to 10 players already, but none of them seem ready to make the jump. The most NBA ready player already turned the Spurs down last season, Erazem Lorbek. And at 30 years old now it is likely he will never play in the NBA. Others are intriguing but are clearly not ready for the NBA jump, such as Livio Jean-Charles, Davis Bertans and Ryan Richards. I would be pretty shocked if the Spurs with this route to fill out the roster.
Free AgencySo the Spurs will probably have 13 players under contract, and armed with full mid-level exception to spend. Just like last season, the Spurs only real need is a back up small forward. During last season we had the worst case scenerio happen for about a 3 week stretch where both Green and Leonard were out with injury. Those are the only two players actually qualified to play the position, and Green is boarderline really. We went through a couple D-Leaguers, and settled on Diaw and Manu playing minutes there. Not ideal.
A quick look at the players available doesn't look like they will use the full exception. There are a handful of guys that are available for near the minimum however that would fit. You want a name that I wouldn't mind seeing that most would gloss over. Richard Jefferson. They could probably get him for near the minimum, and he is already familiar with the system. Another guy that has been forgot by some is Andres Nocioni, who again wouldn't command a lot of money, a vet, and a tough defender.
Kawhi's ExtensionThis is its own category because it will happen and it should happen. Whether he gets the max extension or signs a Curry level extension remains to be seen, but either way, he will be in silver and black for the forseeable future. It leads into this though...
Rotation/ExpectationsThe Spurs rotation will look very similiar to this past season. They only exception would be Leonard. Last year I went on a long rant about how he would make a huge leap coming off last seasons Finals, and largely it didn't happen. I feel the same way then as I do now.
Kawhi Leonard will be the starting SF and should receive quite a promotion. His minutes this season were kept low because he was dealing with knee tendonitis for most of the second half of the season, which is also why you didn't see him play second nights of back to backs. With rest, that should go away, and in the playoffs Pop gave him what he called "The Latrell Sprewell treatment" of playing him 40+ minutes a night several times. While I doubt Pop will ever do that to a player again for a season, I do think Leonard will lead the team in minutes played by a wide margin and average closer to 36 or 37 minutes a night. Additionally, what we saw at the beginning of the second half in game 7 was Pop playing through Leonard in the post and telling him to drive the basketball is absolutely where the Spurs are headed with this guy. I expect Leonard to be the second option on offense during the regular season, and for him to challenge for an All-Star spot. Look at how he kept getting better as the season went along....
Regular Season 11.9 points 6.0 rebounds
Postseason 13.5 points, 9.0 rebounds
Finals (While guarding Lebron) 14.6 points, 11.1 rebounds
Former NBA player Rex Chapman tweeted after the game "Kawhi Leonard at 21 years old, is the closest thing I've seen to becoming Scottie Pippen-like." While I don't think he will ever be the defender Scottie was, he will be a great defensive player and make a couple All-Defensive Teams, but offensively I think this is a very good comparison. Except I think Leonard could be better offensively because of how much his shot has already improved.
I don't think he will average that many minutes next season because this team will blow out too many teams to allow him to stay on the court that long. Something in the 33 to 34 minute range is more realistic. Everything else is pretty much still the case, and for perspective, this seasons splits went like this...
Regular Season 12.8 points, 6.2 rebounds
Postseason 14.3 points, 6.7 rebounds
Finals 17.8 points, 6.4 rebounds
But the pressure of just signing his extension could cause him to press at the start of the season. That is what worries me.
PrognosisShould enter the season as the favorite, it what will likely be Duncan's and Ginobili's final seasons. Just like all the season previous, they will be one of a handful of teams with a chance to win the title. Will be a interesting season to say the least because of the uncertainty that will follow it, and I think that will keep the team motivated for one last hurrah with the "Big Three."
I love being a Spurs fan.
