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Author Topic: Rockets need to explore entire lottery  (Read 4408 times)
chennagi
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« on: June 19, 2006, 07:09:12 pm »
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Any pick can be had for a price. Hopefully McGrady's back won't require anything too drastic.

Besides Yao and McGrady, Rockets probably will and should retain Alston and Head.

The Rockets should think of Mike James, Luther Head, Randy Foye, and Quincy Douby (Terry looks good in the playoffs, would Douby be a steal?) as the same type of player with each having their own slight advantages -- this should be in mind when they are drafting and when they are restructuring their roster.
-Head is probably the best to keep because of his contract, amount of rookie experience, and decent play in dark season.
-Foye has the most upside of them all. Reminds me of Steve Francis with less vertical, but more character. He will be better than Francis in the long run, but not in his rookie season.
-Mike James provides immediate three point spacing, scoring, and great defense against the other team's POINT GUARDS -- not shooting guards. The problem is that Houston also needs a tall swingman mostly (Rodney Carney, Ronnie Brewer), and a power forward that can rebound better than Swift or Howard and play D (Shelden Williams, Cedric Simmons, Patrick O'Bryant).

The goals in this offseason:
1) get a better swingman
*Head can stay, but on the bench as 6th man or 7th man.
*one of the following short SGs will remain (one can be a bench player, but the Rockets aren't matching up well with most teams' 6'6" starting SGs): wesley, head, foye (could be like a Dwade or Sfrancis type of player -- look at wade in the playoffs now), james (a slower, stronger Terry -- better at steals, worst at 3s)
2) attain a player that can pull a PF out of the paint to trouble doubles on Yao
*Novak and Pittsnoggle (better rebounder) could be great 2nd round pickups at #32; both as you all know, are great 3 point shooters, but both also have intangibles like Pittsnoggle's rebounding, Novak's free throws -- Novak is quicker, Pittsnoggle is better at D -- Novak reminds me of Dan Langhi, a Dawson trademark. Pittsnoggle can get some rebs
3) gain depth at point guard
*Spanuolis should be brought over after his rapid development, if Marcus Williams makes it to 8, the Rockets might not be trading their pick
*Alston actually averaged 11 assists a game in Feb when we had Yao and McGrady hobbling, imagine full health everyone. Don't be quick to trade Alston, he's a good distributor, a good handler. He needs to get better at D. He most likely won't. So, hope the Rockets address guard D.
4) guard defense: besides Head's quickness in getting in front of other guards, and Wesley's strength and semi-penetration-stopping, the Rockets had horrible guard D


How much is a Swift worth these days?
A number 2 draft pick should be worth a lot more. He got about the same number of minutes in Houston as in Memphis -- never really being a focal point in the offense for any coaches; similar minutes = similar production. He needs a role change to a faster team that would use his athleticism more. Not a half court team.
Teams that might want Swift:
-NJ Nets, but they are being stingy in what they give in return
-GS Warriors, why not work out something involving either Dunleavy or Murphy
-Hornets
-Hawks
-Celtics
*most teams will address their post player needs in the draft, depending on instant contributors or projects; the better teams looking to solve their post dilemmas will want a more ready contributor, a veteran

The Hawks, Magic, Hornets, and Nets are good teams to talk to on draft night.
-The Hawks want a PG and a PF or C. They should address their PG problem and get Marcus Williams. They might go other ways. The Rockets might look at parting with one of Alston or Spanulois' draft rights, and Swift. Howard is probably untradeable, unless Dawson gets some other GM drunk and rips them off as I suspect Don Nelson does for the Mavs. Rockets also have Bandiane's rights to trade. Sura is untradeable.

+quick note, the Rockets will have plenty of change still tied up in geriatrics: Juwan Howard, Bob Sura, and Charlie Ward are all costing the Rockets $11,692,100 next year. There are still 3 big paychecks for Howard and Sura left after they both have theirs next year. Look at the Mavs, they even get some quality play out of D Mbenga, R Marshall, J Powell. Those are their 3 cheapest contracts. 11.7 million is a lot to help with your roster when the salary cap is 52 million and you need 3 scorers and 3 dang good all around players to win big. Lol, package them for Grant Hill when we trade with the Magic on draft night.

The Rockets need to draft Ronnie Brewer or Rodney Carney, and Cedric Simmons with the Hornets' 2 first round picks (#12 & 15). We give them our pick, which they would use to take Shelden Williams, Patrick O'Bryant, or one of Rodney Carney or Ronnie Brewer. The point is, the Rockets can get their swingman they need in whoever is left amongst Carney and Brewer. That is a risk. If Carney and Brewer are both gone, Redick will be there. One of those 3 will most likely be there. If not, take Foye or Simmons first, and Maurice Ager or best available second.

Rodney Carney has the most upside of all swingmen available when the Rockets pick. High reward also = high risk. The Rockets management will like Carney the most. McGrady likes him and that goes a long ways with GMs (ala Vince Carter traded from GS for Antwan Jamison). The Rockets GMs want some people to hit their open 3s. Redick is the best at that, but they still look at Carney more because he fills more needs. If Carney could improve his handling/dribble and consistency, he'd be the best pick in the long run. In the short term, if the Rockets don't do anything crazy and get rid of TMac, Ronnie Brewer is the best bet to help the Rockets get to the playoffs and stay in them. He is very versatile, but it sounds like his jumper won't ever improve. A lot of other people want Carney, which means TRADE VALUE if it doesn't work. I believe that Carney is the Rocket's pick. Brewer would fill the most immediate needs.

In the end, lets hope McGrady is getting better.

With Swift, the Rockets need to realize that he is more valuable than they think. Do not cut him like Eddie Griffin, Mirsad Turkan, and Jason Collier -- those 3 were Dawson 1st rounders that were cut. Collier a #9 pick (after the Pryzbilla trade), Griffin (a #7 pick who we traded 3 picks in the teens for, one of which was RICHARD JEFFERSON -- thank you again Dawson), and Turkan (teens), were all just cut. Dawson also drafted plenty of other 1st rounders that he simply gave away. Dawson gave away Derek Anderson for a 1.67 mil tade exception and a 10 day contract player. Lets just get smart and realized that some team somewhere will take our players. Package them, combine them, get draft picks, don't give them away.

Rockets should trade Swift for a SG or PF, a lesser PG or PF and a draft pick, or for simply a draft pick or picks (see New Jersey and New Orleans).

If at all possible, trade Swift and #8 for the Hawks #5. That would work for both teams in terms of who the 2 teams seem to want. Brandon Roy is the best fit of all and could be there to be had.

Rockets should resign Keith Bogans and throw some change at Ryan Bowen. Both could be trade bait. Bogans is the #1 priority of all the people to resign, but wouldn't be needed if Brewer was drafted.

If Rockets trade #8 to the Magic for #11, it would be nice to see them get Rodney Carney and Turkoglu. Magic probably would take a PG at 8 or one of Carney or Brewer. Foye is in the mix for Orlando and GS to draft. It could all work out very well for the Rockets if they are smart and only slightly lucky. The Rockets most likely will make a good move no matter if they get a PF or a swingman, perhaps also gaining a 2nd 1st round pick in this draft or next draft.

Decent chance of trading their picks:
Atlanta, Minnesota, Chicago, Boston, Houston
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Raven
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« Reply #1 on: June 19, 2006, 09:06:27 pm »
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Nothing can be done with Juwan Howard until he's in the last year of his contract. Not much the Rockets can do about that unless they bundle their number 8 or Luther Head into the package, so another team would be willing to choke on Juwan's bad contract.

As far as the draft goes, I think the Rockets should look for height, hustle, and shooting, in that order.

I doubt they can get all three with a number 8 pick, but two of the three would be minimum.

I like Sheldon Williams, as I think he would be a safe pick. Of course, that would mean trading Swift, which might not be the easiest thing to do, considering his reputation these days.

I like Reddick, even though he's short, for his position, and lacks athleticism. He brings shooting and intensity, which is two of the three.

Of course, both of those guys could be bust, and I don't envy the Rockets position, in trying to find the right guy.
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chennagi
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« Reply #2 on: June 20, 2006, 12:10:12 am »
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I don't see Juwan Howard or Luther Head being at the top of Van Gundy's list of people to lose. He should think about it though. Head was the benefit of a good selection in the late first round. He is probably going to be a 6th or 7th man for the rest of his career, unless he starts hitting his 3s more often, while taking them less and driving more.

I wonder if it is possible to get rid of Howard's contract and get a lottery pick with Luther Head. Mike James and Randy Foye would fit in better, but they still need height. It'd be neat if we had 2 lottery picks and got rid of Howard's contract. I'd be sad to see Head go.

If we did manage to trade away Howard or Swift on draft night, Shelden Williams and Patrick O'Bryant both would look great in red. Most likely, the 8th pick will be Shelden Williams. He is good for trade bait if we don't keep him.

Too bad you can't just sign Wesley and Bogans to package them with Juwan Howard and/or Stromile Swift. I might as well wish that we could trade Bob Sura for a second round draft pick. Rockets really need to multiply the 8th loaf of bread.
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JSouth#23
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« Reply #3 on: June 21, 2006, 07:54:11 pm »
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If we can draft a SF who can flat out score, we're in some good shape. Think Carney, Brewer, of if we can somehow get Morrison.
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redracer1
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« Reply #4 on: June 21, 2006, 10:21:25 pm »
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Although the Rockets have two good positions in the 1st and 2nd round of the draft, they might want to trade up to get the player they want the most or trade down and get a reliable veteran plus a pick in the 10-15th spot. Like the case mentioned above trading the 8th pick for Turkuglo and Orlando's pick would make sense.
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Raven
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« Reply #5 on: June 22, 2006, 01:11:33 am »
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I know the Rockets need shooting, but I would be satisfied with them picking Sheldon Williams, since good bigs are harder to acquire than good smalls.

If not Sheldon Williams, I'd be happy with JJ Reddick. I know he has a lot of question marks, but the idea of Utah picking him up thee spots later terrifies me.
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chennagi
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« Reply #6 on: June 22, 2006, 11:40:00 pm »
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Would you trade Head and 8 for 6? Thats the latest rumor if Roy is available at 6. I think the Rockets get the bad end of the stick, but hopefully not by much. Would you rather have Brewer or Orlando's pick and Redick/Foye/Brewer/Carney -- only 1 or 2 will be there -- or Brandon Roy. I love Brandon Roy and believe he's perfect -- he is as versatile as Brewer, seemingly less athletic, but a better shooter. He can play pg, sg, and sf -- Brewer can too, but can Brewer draw defenders out to the 3pt line? Not really. Head can though... probably will be better at it next year too. I think that Minnesota should throw in something else. Head made Rookie second team, and I believe that Foye will be taken at 8 and will be on the Rookie first team, along with Brandon Roy. Roy fits better and makes signing Mike James a lot more sense than having multiple, short, 2-guards. Rockets are moving away from depth. Dallas, San Antonio, and Miami all had depth last year. However, the thought of this lineup is full of kickassness!!! -- if healthy~

Pg Alston
Sg Roy
Sf McGrady
Pf Howard - this spot needs some fixin still!!!!
C Yao

Bench:
PG/SG James
SG/SF Bogans -resign?
SF/PF Hayes
PF/C Swift -traded for a zillion lottery picks! ok, maybe a 1st rounder? 2?
PG Spanoulis
C Mutumbo
SF/PF Bowen
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